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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Comfortable Friday the thirteenth to those that observe. –lambert
Chook Music of the Day
Home Wren (Northern), 6681 Leaches Crossing Rd, Avoca, Wisconsin, United States. “With Widespread Yellowthroat, Music Sparrow, Mourning Dove, RWBL…”
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Politics
“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in reality a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
The Constitutional Order
“Colorado choose strikes down Trump’s try to toss a lawsuit looking for to bar him from 2024 major poll” [Colorado Sun]. “Residents for Accountability and Ethics in Washington claims in its lawsuit that placing Trump on the poll in Colorado would violate a provision of the 14th Modification that bars individuals who have “engaged in riot” in opposition to the Structure from holding workplace…. Trump’s attorneys argued {that a} Colorado legislation defending individuals from being sued over exercising their free speech rights shielded him from the lawsuit, however Colorado District Choose Sarah Wallace stated that legislation doesn’t apply on this case…. The trial to find out Trump’s eligibility for the Colorado poll is scheduled to start out Oct. 30.”
Biden Administration
A bit warfare information, because the state of affairs is overly unstable:
“Israel-Hamas reside: Hundreds flee however no mass exodus after Israeli warning” [Al Jazeera]. “Al Jazeera correspondents report that 1000’s have fled to the south, however there seems to be no mass exodus.” • Here’s a helpful map:
“South” is the place the IDF ordered Gazans to flee, which means south of the Wadi Gaza (map heart), or “Gaza River” (plus wetlands). If I have been a Palestinian, I might be very doubtful about being much more penned up.
“Israeli army says troops make first floor raids into Gaza” [Reuters]. “Israeli army spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari stated troops backed by tanks had mounted raids to assault Palestinian rocket crews and search info on the placement of hostages taken by Hamas.”
“Putin cautions Israel in opposition to utilizing ways in Gaza like Nazi siege of Leningrad” [Reuters]. “Russian President Vladimir Putin cautioned Israel on Friday in opposition to laying siege to Gaza in the identical approach that Nazi Germany besieged Leningrad, saying a floor offensive there would result in an ‘completely unacceptable’ variety of civilian casualties. Putin stated Israel had been subjected to ‘an assault unprecedented in its cruelty’ by Hamas militants, however was responding with merciless strategies of its personal. He stated there had been calls even in america for a blockade of the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip on a par with ‘the siege of Leningrad throughout World Warfare Two’. ‘In my opinion it’s unacceptable,’ Putin informed reporters at a summit in Kyrgyzstan. ‘Greater than 2 million individuals reside there. Removed from all of them assist Hamas by the way in which, removed from all. However all of them must endure, together with girls and youngsters. In fact it’s arduous for anybody to agree with this.’ His criticism of Israel was made all of the extra stinging by the reference to the 1941-44 siege of Leningrad and the implied comparability between Israel and Hitler’s Germany, with potential for inflicting deep offence in Israel. Putin stated, nonetheless, that Israel had the appropriate to defend itself.” • I for one can be very pleased to (1) uncover any participant who’s agreement-capable and (2) think about a great consequence (or somewhat a greater consequence than the established order ante).
“Chuck Schumer will lead a bipartisan journey to Israel this weekend” [Politico]. • Let me understand how that works out….
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“WH Denounces Dems Equating Hamas Assault With Israel’s Response” [RealClearPolitics]. “On Tuesday, the White Home condemned “repugnant” and “disgraceful” feedback from members of Congress equating the terrorist assault by Hamas with earlier actions taken by Israel. Notably, this rebuttal applies to Democratic Reps. Rashida Tlaib of Michigan and Cori Bush of Missouri…. This was a continuation of a message the president burdened instantly moments earlier within the East Room of the White Home. Flanked by Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Biden stated forcefully, ‘Like each nation on the earth, Israel has the appropriate to reply, certainly has an obligation to reply, to those vicious assaults.’” • Good to see Biden being “forceful.” That ought to convey him a bit of bump.
2024
Time for the Countdown Clock!
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“Donald Trump’s Israeli Warfare Perception” [Wall Street Journal]. The complete quote: “‘Two nights in the past I learn all of Biden’s safety individuals, are you able to think about, nationwide protection individuals,’ Mr. Trump stated Wednesday evening in West Palm Seashore. ‘And so they stated ‘Gee, I hope Hezbollah doesn’t assault from the north. As a result of that’s essentially the most weak spot.’ And I stated, wait a minute, you already know Hezbollah may be very good. They’re all very good. The press doesn’t like once they say, you already know. I stated that President Xi of China, 1.4 billion individuals, he controls it with an iron fist. I stated he’s a really good man. They killed me the subsequent day. I stated he was good. What am I gonna say?’” • Trump being Trump. Democrat aghastitude as a result of demon figures are demons ffs (and naturally solely Democrats are good. That’s why they’re operating Joe Biden).
“Trump, in West Palm Seashore, tells DeSantis: ‘I can always remember.’ And neglect about 2028, too.” [Palm Beach Post]. “‘I believe he blew it for in 4 years. You by no means know what’s going to occur, however in ’28, I don’t see it taking place,’ Trump stated to a crowd of supporters. “I can always remember as a result of that’s such nice disloyalty.’ Trump’s taunts got here throughout a present of political pressure with 1000’s gathered in West Palm Seashore for a gathering of a fan membership created greater than 5 years expressly for him throughout his presidency. It was a possibility for Trump to show his enduring reputation in his dwelling county and DeSantis’ dwelling state. The Trump devoted didn’t disappoint by displaying up in numbers massive sufficient to fill the cavernous Palm Seashore County Conference Heart.”
“Trump attorneys declare particular counsel seeks pre-election conviction in categorized paperwork case ‘regardless of the associated fee’” [South Florida Sun-Sentinel]. “‘The truth that they proceed to contend that it’s acceptable and never a violation of President Trump’s due course of rights to push ahead with back-to-back multi-month trials in several districts with wholly completely different info — over a defendant’s objection — reveals a central reality about these circumstances,’ the protection attorneys wrote. ‘The particular counsel’s workplace is engaged in a reckless effort to attempt to acquire a conviction of President Trump previous to the 2024 election, regardless of the associated fee.’ ‘The Courtroom mustn’t allow using the legal justice course of towards that finish,’ the attorneys added. The attorneys repeated their earlier assertions that the federal government has not adopted by on its obligations to make all of the categorized paperwork accessible and obtainable for inspection by the protection. The particular counsel’s prosecutors dispute that assertion, saying they’ve made safe services obtainable to evaluation the supplies.”
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“White Home knew Biden had his personal doc drawback earlier than siccing FBI on Trump, new timeline exhibits” [Just the News]. “Comer disclosed in a letter to White Home Counsel Edward Siskel that Congress has now confirmed that Biden’s aides knew as early as March 2021 that the present president had saved authorities paperwork at his insecure college assume tank workplace in Washington D.C. They might later be decided to include categorized info. A yr later – with the general public unaware of Biden’s doc predicament – the Biden White Home instructed the Nationwide Archives to provide the FBI entry to fifteen packing containers of presidency memos —some categorized — that Trump had positioned in his Florida dwelling, kicking a legal probe of the forty fifth president into excessive gear.” And: “In accordance with the timeline in Chairman Comer’s letter, Biden White Home workers first visited the Penn Biden Heart—a think-tank on the College of Pennsylvania—to ‘take stock of President Biden’s paperwork and supplies,’ in March of 2021, greater than a yr earlier than President Biden’s attorneys claimed that ‘what seem[ed] to be Obama-Biden Administration data, together with a small variety of paperwork with categorized markings’ have been first found on the heart on November 2, 2022.” • Not earthshaking, however drip-drip-drip….
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“Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis duke it out for donors — however it might not matter in opposition to Trump” [NBC]. “As Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley jockey to be the highest various to former President Donald Trump within the Republican presidential primaries, their campaigns will court docket a consortium of megadonors at a closed-door convention Friday in Dallas…. And even profitable the donor jackpot may not make a lot of a distinction. Many Republicans have concluded that more money would make little distinction in efforts to topple Trump. Between his marketing campaign and the tremendous PAC By no means Again Down, DeSantis has collected greater than $150 million. After it spent $4 million testing anti-Trump adverts in Iowa, the Win it Again PAC — which has ties to the conservative Membership for Development — discovered it might do restricted injury, with ‘diminishing returns,’ to Trump.” Wowsers. And these guys are used to purchasing no matter they need. New expertise for them! Extra: “As of final week, DeSantis’ marketing campaign had simply $5 million within the financial institution for the primaries, a small quantity for somebody who entered the race in Could with expectations that he can be the sector’s greatest fundraiser by far. A DeSantis donor stated it’s a ‘big drawback.’ Haley’s marketing campaign reported having $9 million obtainable for major season spending.” • Ouch!
“Ron DeSantis hits new low in North Carolina polling” [Florida Politics]. “The Florida Governor has simply 12% assist within the ballot of 600 possible Republican Major voters, which was carried out Oct. 8 and Oct. 9. That places him 40 factors behind Donald Trump’s 52%, and in a statistical tie with Nikki Haley’s 11% given the ballot’s margin of error of +/- 3.88 proportion factors. An extra 12% of respondents have been undecided, with Vivek Ramaswamy’s 5% good for fourth place amongst precise candidates. The pollster calls the outcomes a ‘runaway’ for Trump.”
“A billionaire-backed assume tank retains sabotaging Florida employees. Extra assaults are coming.” [Jason Garcia, Seeking Rents]. “Dick Uihlein, the Midwestern billionaire and Republican megadonor who’s the most important funder of the Basis for Authorities Accountability. Uihlein, an inheritor to the Schlitz brewing fortune and the founding father of the delivery provide firm Uline, has been superb to Ron DeSantis Marketing campaign-finance filings present that Uihlein has given greater than $2.4 million to DeSantis over the previous 5 years — together with $1.4 million to a state political committee that DeSantis used to regulate and one other $1 million to a federal tremendous PAC now financing his marketing campaign for president. Uihlein’s spouse, Liz Uihlein, has given DeSanits one other $1.5 million. And Ron DeSantis has been superb to Dick Uihlein and his Basis for Authorities Accountability. Emails, schedules and lobbying data present that senior DeSantis aides have labored intently with FGA staffers whereas concurrently cultivating Uihlein with perks like invites to non-public occasions on the Governor’s Mansion in Tallahassee….. With Uihlein’s FGA cheering him on and offering public-relations cowl, DeSantis has slashed unemployment funds to laid-off employees. He has made it more durable for public-sector workers to band collectively in unions and collectively cut price for higher pay and advantages. And he has refused to increase Medicaid to an estimated 800,000 Floridians who don’t have medical health insurance — and is now presiding over a very callous purge of the state’s post-pandemic Medicaid rolls. The FGA is pushing for extra. Information present it been engaged on proposals that might deny meals stamps to extra Floridians, evict some individuals from reasonably priced housing, lock full-time faculty college students into near-full-time jobs, and permit authorities contractors to pay their workers poorer wages.” • Not good individuals in any respect.
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“How a Grinnell fender-bender fueled a deceptive marketing campaign narrative” [Bleeding Heartland]. A pupil jourrnalist is an eye-witness to Ramaswamy’s go to to Grinnell. “His interactions with college students appeared to observe a components. His purpose was to evoke a response, usually by remaining unemotional and uncaring whereas discussing essential subjects to college students. Whether or not it was LGBTQ+ activists, public college supporters, or Ukrainian college students, he knew the way to solicit visceral responses, rigorously documented by marketing campaign staffers recording each interplay from a number of digicam angles. With content material in hand, he might take to social media, mischaracterizing interactions and ignoring info.” Which he did. And: “With that in thoughts, I mustn’t have been stunned when Ramaswamy and his marketing campaign put forth a transparent lie in regards to the automobile accident that occurred previous to the occasion in Grinnell on Thursday, October 5. The accident befell when a driver backed out of her parking spot, by the way contacting a marketing campaign car parked throughout the road. The marketing campaign claimed that: (1) the incident was intentional, (2) the scholar was affiliated with a bunch of protesters, and (3) the driving force fled the scene. In actuality, the state of affairs was vastly completely different. The driving force was clearly distracted by Ramaswamy’s arrival and didn’t look behind her or in her rear-view mirror. As she backed out, she scraped her proper bumper on the left bumper of the marketing campaign automobile [diagram given]. It was obvious that: (1) the accident was unintentional, (2) the driving force didn’t realize it was Ramaswamy’s automobile, (3) she was unaffiliated with protesters, and (4) she remained on the scene to speak with police. And but, the media ran with the marketing campaign’s story, refusing to take the time to confirm the account or speak to the concerned events. Greater than something, I see this episode as a reminder that nationwide media will select velocity over accuracy far too usually. If native reporters had not been current, the reality of the state of affairs might not have come to mild.” And this little lagniappe: “But, because the Grinnell Police Chief informed me throughout my investigation into Ramaswamy’s unlawful parking, ‘Info are good.’ Certainly they’re.” • Do libertarians imagine that parking may even be unlawful?
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“RNC’s Election Integrity Division Will get To Work” [RealClearPolitics]. “On the identical time, within the years since 2020 the concerted efforts of Democrats, left-leaning activists, and main company media to dismiss the dangers posed by mail-in balloting and different points within the 2020 election have confirmed deceptive in key respects. Typical of this effort was the Brookings Establishment, which asserted in 2020 that ‘there isn’t any proof that mail ballots enhance electoral fraud.’ That is regardless of the truth that earlier experiences by The New York Instances and Jimmy Carter, in addition to a joint evaluation by Cal Tech and M.I.T., all affirmed that mail-in ballots are extra vulnerable to fraud. Connecticut authorities are at present recommending legal costs in opposition to marketing campaign employees for the mayor of Bridgeport – the most important metropolis within the state – over potential fraud involving mail-in ballots in that metropolis’s 2019 Democratic major election. Now native authorities are investigating once more after fellow Democrats have produced a video apparently displaying the identical mayor’s marketing campaign fraudulently stuffing poll packing containers to narrowly win one other major election final month. Because of this, questions in regards to the radical alteration of how People voted in 2020 because of COVID and aggressive Democratic Get together litigation have by no means been settled, and Republican voters stay suspicious.”
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Republican Funhouse
“Worry and loathing grips the Home GOP” [Politico]. “The Home GOP has entered an angrier and extra bewildered part in its management disaster. The fractious Republican convention has rejected a second speaker hopeful in eight days — this time, Kevin McCarthy’s longtime inheritor obvious, Steve Scalise. Whereas Republicans seem like turning subsequent to Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), some are already airing open doubts that Jordan can pull off what the bulk chief couldn’t. The lesson Republicans have discovered within the frenetic week since McCarthy’s fall: They don’t have any clear selection for chief who can unite their ranks — regardless of how lengthy this drags out and their chamber of Congress is paralyzed. It’s not simply GOP centrists sparring with the arduous proper. It’s not simply McCarthy loyalists secretly fuming at Scalise or his allies. There’s mounting anger throughout the complete convention that no GOP speaker candidate, together with Jordan, seems in a position to prevail underneath the present margins.” • Jordan, a Republican speaker wannabe wrestling with the identical points as one-time speaker Denny Hastert. Absolutely it’s potential to do higher?
“Bipartisan speak grows as GOP fails to discover a speaker” [Axios]. “Lawmakers in each events are expressing rising openness, each in public and in non-public, to a bipartisan deal to elect a Home speaker as Republicans are regularly thwarted of their efforts to do it alone With Home Majority Chief Steve Scalise (R-La.) withdrawing regardless of profitable his celebration’s nomination, some Republicans are involved no person can win the job with simply GOP votes. “There’s a sentiment constructing round [a bipartisan deal] amongst Democrats and Republicans,” Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.), a member of Democratic management who represents a swing district, informed Axios….” • How about Oprah?
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“Wisconsin Republicans Stroll Again Efforts to Impeach Newly Elected State Supreme Courtroom Justice Protasiewicz” [Democracy Docket]. ”
On Thursday, Oct. 12, Wisconsin Meeting Speaker Robin Vos (R) and fellow Republicans indicated that they’d stroll again their impeachment campaign in opposition to liberal state Supreme Courtroom Justice Janet Protasiewicz. This comes after final week when former Wisconsin Supreme Courtroom Justice David Prosser suggested Vos that there ought to be ‘no effort to question’ Protasiewicz over her refusal to recuse herself from an ongoing authorized problem to the state’s legislative maps. At the moment, in what seems to be an try to retract his threats, Vos clarified that any impeachment inquiries going ahead would relaxation on what the justice does whereas ‘in workplace.’”
Democrats en Déshabillé
Affected person readers, it appears that evidently persons are truly studying the back-dated put up! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are numerous updates. So I should try this. –lambert
I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Get together (“the Democrat Get together is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated put up, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “reside” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Get together is, in reality, a tough drawback. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:
The Democrat Get together is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). It follows that the Democrat Get together is as “unreformable” because the PMC is unreformable; if the Democrat Get together didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. If the Democrat Get together fails to control, that’s as a result of the PMC lacks the potential to control. (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working components of the Get together reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Get together (ka-ching, however not completely) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence group.
Notice, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.
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“Fetterman: America ‘not sending their greatest and brightest’ to Congress” [The Hill]. “Sen. John Fetterman stated Wednesday that America ‘is just not sending their greatest and brightest’ to signify them in Congress. ‘Generally you actually simply can’t imagine like, these persons are making the selections which are figuring out the federal government right here. It’s truly scary, the Pennsylvania Democrat stated throughout an look on “The Late Present with Stephen Colbert…. ‘[Y]ou have some very much less gifted sorts of individuals there which are prepared to close down the federal government simply as rating factors on Fox [News],” Fetterman stated. As Home Republicans battle to elect a brand new Speaker after eradicating Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) earlier this month, Colbert requested if senators ‘really feel fairly good proper now that they’re not essentially the most dysfunctional a part of the federal government?’ ‘Properly it’s a low bar, actually,’ Fetterman replied. ‘I simply need all people to comprehend simply how really dysfunctional it truly is,’ the 54-year-old lawmaker continued. ‘And I at all times inform individuals, don’t fear, please don’t fear. It’s a lot worse than you assume.’” • Individuals are dunking on Fetterman for this, but when I fulfilled a life-long dream, made it to the Senate, and found what it was like, I’d be depressed, too. Now, this should be the usual “Republicans are silly, we’re good” trope that Democrats deploy at any time when they’re respiration or waking, however Fetterman actually doesn’t go there; “rating factors on Fox” is fairly weak, in any case I’ve heard (unsure if that is true now) that FOX is blaring all over the place on the Capitol. Additionally, keep in mind the research I posted awhile again that stated that the one persona kind that assessed threat precisely was the depressive?
“The Democrats’ Immigration Drawback” [Ruy Teixeira, the Liberal Patriot]. “[T]his inflow has now unfold throughout the nation together with to quite a few very blue cities and states who at the moment are complaining loudly in regards to the pressure on their assets, regardless of their professed insurance policies of being ‘sanctuaries’ [no, not like that!] for such unlawful entrants. Half of the resort rooms in New York Metropolis at the moment are occupied by these migrants and 600 extra are arriving day-after-day within the metropolis. Comparable tales of being utterly overwhelmed by the migrant inflow abound throughout the nation… Briefly, the state of affairs is uncontrolled—precisely what most voters don’t need and they’re reacting accordingly…. At this level, Democrats seem like hoping that the immigration concern is simply not very salient to voters in 2024 or that different points are a lot extra salient (e.g., abortion) that their big drawback on immigration gained’t matter a lot. In what guarantees to be a really shut election in opposition to a possible opponent who might be more than pleased to demagogue the problem, this look like a really unwise course, if not an outright reward to your opponent.” • “Half of the resort rooms in New York Metropolis” is a formidable factoid, but it surely additionally comes from New York Mayor Eric Adams, who doesn’t cite to a supply. Absolutely Teixeira can do higher than that?
“Purple or blue, Democrats have grand plans for numerous voters in your state” [Donna Brazile, The Hill]. “Whereas solely 41 % of white voters within the 2020 presidential election solid ballots for Joe Biden in keeping with Roper Public Opinion Analysis, Biden was elected president on the power of majorities he gained amongst different voters. These included 87 % of Black voters, 65 % of Hispanic voters and 61 % of Asian American voters. As well as, Biden gained 57 % of the feminine vote and 60 % of the vote amongst individuals 29 and youthful (in contrast with 45 % of the vote amongst these 65 and older).” • Ah, one other classification battle!
Realignment and Legitimacy
“Soros Closes Workplaces Throughout $25 Billion Philanthropy Empire” [Bloomberg]. “The $25 billion worldwide community of foundations began by George Soros is shuttering places of work all over the world because it prepares to chop greater than 40% of its workers.” • First SBF, now this!
#COVID19
“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the handle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater experiences); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
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“One thing Terrible”
Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” could be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. A number of exceptionally nasty sequelae, more than likely deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we’d add mind injury, together with persona modifications therefrom.
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Lambert right here: Again to tape-watching mode. It nonetheless seems to be to me like the present surge has some methods to run, given how wastewater flattened, with the East Coast up. Let’s wait and see.
Case Knowledge
NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater information, October 2:
Lambert right here: Leveling out to a excessive plateau wasn’t on my Bingo card! Maybe FL.1.5.1, excessive within the Northeast, has one thing going for it that different variants don’t have?
Regional information:
Apparently, the upswing begins earlier than July 4, which neither accelerates nor retards it.
• CDC butchers transition from Biobot to Verily:
I used to be anticipating to offer an up to date PMC C0VID-19 Tracker immediately, however Biobot has not up to date their wastewater report.
Sooner or later, we’ll transition to Verily, however I hoped Biobot would proceed to report a bit longer.
Within the meantime (quickly), I will present some… https://t.co/q3EFNJ29au
— Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA (@michael_hoerger) October 10, 2023
Why on earth is their a spot in protection? Absolutely it will have been potential to transition seamlessly from one wastewater testing firm seamlessly? That is our solely dependable proxy for nation-wide case information. Why, it’s nearly like CDC doesn’t need us to see it! (I’m growing extra on Verily, which seems to be very prime heavy, stuffed with Silicon Valley varieties, however actually hasn’t delivered a lot of something. Additionally, there was a very large layoff lately. I did undergo the chief layer, on the lookout for spooks, however didn’t discover any. (If anyone has any company experiences on Verily, please share or throw over the transom.)
Variants
From CDC, October 14:
Lambert right here: September 30 is tomorrow, however by no means thoughts that. Prime of the leaderboard: EG.5 (“Eris“), with HV.1 a robust second, and XBB.1.1.16.6 and FL.1.15.1 trailing. No BA.2.86. Nonetheless a Bouillabaisse…
From CDC, September 16:
Lambert right here: I certain hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to services reduce by directors of ailing intent).
CDC: “As of Could 11, genomic surveillance information might be reported biweekly, based mostly on the provision of constructive check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Seems like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.
Covid Emergency Room Visits
NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, October 7:
Drop coinciding with wastewater drop.
NOTE “Charts and information supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not the complete pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “similar to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for bothMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these individuals a lot. Discover additionally that this chart exhibits, a minimum of for its time interval, that Covid is just not seasonal, despite the fact that CDC is attempting to get us to imagine that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections.
Hospitalization
Bellwether New York Metropolis, information as of October 12:
Nonetheless reducing. (New York State is now falling, too.) I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading.
NOT UPDATED Right here’s a distinct CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, a minimum of. September 30:
Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and information supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?
Positivity
NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, October 9:
-1.0%. Nonetheless dropping, although lower than earlier than. (It will be fascinating to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer stress, went and bought examined anyhow.)
NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, October 7:
Lambert right here: I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is nice*, and we’re starved for information, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is attempting to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.
NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s information, September 18:
Again up once more, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed below are the variants for vacationers:
Now, BA.2.86 for 2 weeks in a row. Bears watching.
Deaths
NOT UPDATED Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, September 27:
Lambert right here: The WHO information is nugatory, so I changed it with the Iowa Covid Knowledge Tracker. Their methodology: “These information have been sourced, by way of the API from the CDC: https://information.cdc.gov/NCHS/Situations-Contributing-to-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Stat/hk9y-quqm. This visualization updates on Wednesday evenings. Knowledge are provisional and are adjusted weekly by the CDC.” I can’t appear to get a pop-up that exhibits a complete of the three causes (prime proper). Readers?
Complete: 1,178,704 – 1,178,638 = 66 (66 * 365 = 24,090 deaths per yr, immediately’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “residing with” Covid (fairly a bit increased than the minimizers would really like, although they’ll speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may must determine that is what the powers-that-be contemplate “mission achieved” for this specific tranche of dying and illness).
Extra Deaths
The Economist, October 13:
Lambert right here: Primarily based on a machine-learning mannequin.
Stats Watch
There aren’t any official statistics of curiosity immediately.
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At the moment’s Worry & Greed Index: 29 Worry (earlier shut: 35 Worry) [CNN]. One week in the past: 25 (Excessive Worry). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Oct 11 at 1:42:38 PM ET.
The Gallery
“Scientists pry a secret from the ‘Mona Lisa’ about how Leonardo painted the masterpiece” [Associated Press]. “Utilizing X-rays to see into the chemical construction of a tiny speck of the celebrated murals, scientists have gained new perception into the methods that Leonardo da Vinci used to color his groundbreaking portrait of the girl with the exquisitely enigmatic smile. The analysis, revealed Wednesday within the Journal of the American Chemical Society, means that the famously curious, discovered and creative Italian Renaissance grasp might have been in a very experimental temper when he set to work on the ‘Mona Lisa’ early within the sixteenth century. The oil-paint recipe that Leonardo used as his base layer to arrange the panel of poplar wooden seems to have been completely different for the ‘Mona Lisa,’ with its personal distinctive chemical signature, the workforce of scientists and artwork historians in France and Britain found. ‘He was somebody who beloved to experiment, and every of his work is totally completely different technically,’ stated Victor Gonzalez, the research’s lead writer and a chemist at France’s prime analysis physique, the CNRS. …. Particularly, the researchers discovered a uncommon compound, plumbonacrite, in Leonardo’s first layer of paint. … Discovering plumbonacrite within the ‘Mona Lisa’ attests “to Leonardo’s spirit of passionate and fixed experimentation as a painter – it’s what renders him timeless and trendy,” [Carmen Bambach, a specialist in Italian art and curator at New York’s Metropolitan Museum of Art’ said by email.” • Surely “timeless and modern” is a contradiction in terms?
Class Warfare
“Kaiser Permanente, Unions Reach Deal on New Contracts” [Wall Street Journal]. “Unions and the well being system introduced the deal Friday morning, after the primary full day of bargaining following a strike by greater than 75,000 Kaiser nurses, pharmacists and different employees. The strike, which lasted as much as three days, was the most important on report in healthcare. Neither facet instantly supplied phrases of the tentative settlement. Wages and staffing throughout Kaiser hospitals and clinics have been key points in negotiations. The unions stated Kaiser outsourcing was a sticking level. Performing U.S. Labor Secretary Julie Su had joined the negotiations to assist resolve the disputes. Unions warned of a bigger and longer work stoppage in November with out an settlement. ” • There isn’t any deal, and there’s no contract, till the union membership voted on it. Why is that this so arduous for “journalists” to know?
Information of the Wired
“The Absolute Minimal Each Software program Developer Should Know About Unicode in 2023 (Nonetheless No Excuses!)” [Tonsky]. • Enjoyable stuff.
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Contact info for vegetation: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a verify in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photographs of vegetation. Greens are tremendous! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you’d like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it initially of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From SR:
SR writes: “Not essentially the most elegant shot. However turmeric glows inexperienced in late afternoon.” A bit blown out by the setting solar, however fairly a plant!
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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. So in the event you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible type. Keep in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get fearful. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:
Right here is the display screen that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
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