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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Chicken Tune of the Day
Barn Swallow (American), Jena Wildlife Administration Space, Dixie, Florida, United States. “Tune and calls at nesting website below concrete bridge; similar colony and placement as 96-05-08.”
* * *
Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in truth a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Biden Administration
“World crises sound alarm, however Biden’s international coverage delivers shaky response” [Washington Times]. “‘The USA is in a far weaker place at the moment than it was below earlier administrations,’ stated Nile Gardiner, a international affairs analyst on the conservative Heritage Basis. ‘Biden has projected weak spot. You see it within the Center East, the place Iran has gained a variety of floor. You see it in Asia with rising Chinese language aggression. The Biden administration is flailing on the world stage.’” • A rustic that may’t manufacture sufficient ammunition desires to struggle a two-front warfare. Three, in case you throw China into the combo. And to be honest to Biden, that didn’t begin with him; it took many years of bipartisan decision-making.
2024
Time for the Countdown Clock!
* * *
“Trump and Biden Search Historic Mixed Sweep” [Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball]. “[I]t is feasible that Biden and Trump will, mixed, put up the strongest efficiency within the nominating season in trendy historical past. There has by no means been a nominating season the place each main occasion nominees went undefeated within the nominating season. However that may be a risk on this Biden versus Trump matchup. In nationwide polling (this time, aggregated by FiveThirtyEight), Trump is up roughly 40 factors over his nearest rival, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), 55%-14%, with different candidates lagging behind DeSantis. Biden, in the meantime, has not attracted any mainstream opposition and is at present main 61%-17% nationally over vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who experiences point out is poised to go away the Democratic race in favor of an impartial bid [which he did]. Biden’s polling lead shouldn’t be very spectacular for a sitting president, however he additionally has no robust opposition to capitalize on this smooth help. Trump’s leads in polls of Iowa and New Hampshire will not be fairly as strong as his nationwide lead, however he’s nonetheless been up roughly 30 factors on his nearest rival in latest surveys of each leadoff states. Now we have to be on guard for the likelihood that one thing adjustments in both or each races. What if there’s a formidable late entry on both facet? What if Donald Trump’s seemingly robust help is a mirage, and the mixed weight of his authorized and different issues opens the door to certainly one of his opponents? What if Joe Biden’s age and poor approval scores immediate him to retire? However one other what if, extra believable than any of the talked about above, is that this: What if nothing adjustments? And that’s the place the potential of a historic, trendy sweep comes into play.” • Firmly on the facet of stability (not volatility).
* * *
“Trump sues ex-spy over file, citing ‘stunning and scandalous claims’ [Associatiated Press]. ” A lawyer for Donald Trump instructed a London choose Monday the ex-president plans to show that ‘stunning and scandalous claims’ about him in a largely discredited report by a former British spy have been false and harmed his status. Trump has sued the corporate based by Christopher Steele, who created a file in 2016 that contained rumors and uncorroborated allegations about Trump that erupted in a political storm simply earlier than he was inaugurated. Trump is in search of damages from Orbis Enterprise Intelligence for allegedly violating British knowledge safety legal guidelines…. Trump stated in his witness assertion that he was not making an attempt to harass or search revenge or drive Orbis into monetary smash however desires to ascertain that the knowledge within the file was false. ‘Till there’s such a judgment, I proceed to undergo injury and misery because of individuals wrongfully believing that the information within the file is correct,’ he stated. In two earlier Excessive Court docket instances, a choose dominated Orbis and Steele weren’t legally answerable for the results of the file’s publication.”
* * *
“Trump Tells Iowa Crowd: ‘I’m Prepared to Go to Jail … for Our Nation to Win’” [The Messenger]. • That’s a pitch that’s laborious to beat!
“Inside Trump’s Backroom Effort to Lock Up the Nomination” [New York Times]. “As Mr. Trump dodges debates and is usually seen on his golf programs in branded white polo shirts and pink MAGA hats, it could appear that he’s bypassing the 2024 main struggle fully. He has finished comparatively few public marketing campaign occasions till latest weeks. However Mr. Trump and his political crew have spent months working behind the scenes to construct alliances and contingency plans with key occasion officers, in search of to twist the first and delegate guidelines of their favor…. The maneuvering is the kind of old-school occasion politics that Mr. Trump, who lower his tooth within the machine politics of Nineteen Seventies and Eighties New York, relishes and is aware of greatest: private calls and chits, glad-handing, relationships and reprisals. Advisers say that in distinction to some duties, getting him to make these calls is a breeze. Plus, the seemingly arcane subject of delegate accumulation — tallying up formal help within the states to safe the nomination on the occasion conference subsequent summer season — is deeply private to Mr. Trump after he was outflanked in precisely this struggle in 2016. Then, a better-organized Senator Ted Cruz of Texas labored Trump-skeptical state events to win extra delegates even in some locations the place he had misplaced on the poll field…. Now, surrounded by a extra skilled crew and the authority of a former president with loyalists entrenched nationwide, Mr. Trump is doing to Mr. DeSantis precisely what he as soon as accused Hillary Clinton of doing to Bernie Sanders: bending the system in his favor. Mr. Trump’s backroom marketing campaign reveals the extent to which he has turn into the institution of the Republican Social gathering.” • Attention-grabbing. Do we now have any Republican, or Republican-adjacent readers who can remark? (It does appear to me that it is a sample with Trump; behind the puffery and the bluster may be very usually a disciplined and efficient backroom operation; true in 2016, when Jared arrange an information operation in Texas; and IIRC throughout his Presidency, the place some legal professionals no person ever heard did an important job on his impeachment protection. Why this sample was not true for Trump’s election denial scheme in 2020, and why he needed to depend on legal professionals each bent and incompetent, continues to be an open query. I imply, it’s merely not prima facie that our elections are clear.)
* * *
“Alex Marlow on ‘Breaking Biden’: Hunter Biden, Artwork Troll: President’s Addict Son Paints with Cocaine Straw, Alcohol-Based mostly Paints” [DNYUZ]. “Most individuals assume they know the Bidens all too properly. One of many causes I wrote [Breaking Biden] is as a result of I imagine, generally, individuals know comparatively nothing in regards to the Bidens. Hunter is as misunderstood as any of them. I notice within the guide that regardless of his grifting, drug use, and reluctance to carry out fundamental paternal obligations, typically ‘I believe he is perhaps the one cool Democrat and one of many few ‘totally realized’ Individuals who’re overtly dwelling their lives as their true selves.’ My colleague Emma-Jo Morris, who is aware of Hunter’s true self higher than nearly anybody in journalism, has been making the identical level for a while.” • Expensive Hunter! I agree; Hunter has lived! I might vote for Hunter Biden over Pete Buttigieg any day of the week.
* * *
“DeSantis greets Floridians on first chartered flight from Israel” [Politico]. • Hoo boy.
“‘That call price lives’: Covid knowledge case additional deflates Ron DeSantis’s marketing campaign” [Guardian]. “A courtroom settlement over withheld Covid-19 knowledge that critics say price hundreds of lives has deflated Ron DeSantis’s marketing campaign path persona as a brave freedom warrior who saved his state open throughout a lethal peak of the pandemic… The settlement ends a two-year authorized battle between the DeSantis administration and a coalition of Democrats, open authorities advocates and media shops that started in June 2021 when the Florida well being division ended each day updates of Covid instances, deaths and vaccinations on its on-line dashboard. The division can pay the plaintiffs’ $152,000 authorized invoice and resume common posting of the information that DeSantis’s communications crew insisted on the time was not mandatory as a result of instances
had ‘considerably decreased’ and that Florida was ‘returning to regular’. In actuality, as DeSantis dismissed reporting on the pandemic as ‘media hysteria’, the Delta variant of the virus was simply taking maintain, and instances and fatalities spiked, to a file 385 a day in Florida by September 2021. Concurrently, Florida led the nation in pediatric Covid hospitalizations…. ;Twenty-three thousand Floridians died in the course of the Delta surge, and never solely did the DeSantis administration prohibit info on Covid throughout that point, they repeatedly downplayed the severity of the outbreak to suit their political narrative and assist DeSantis run for president. That call price lives,’ stated Carlos Guillermo Smith, a Democratic former state congressman who filed the lawsuit towards the Florida well being division, later joined by the Florida Middle for Authorities Accountability.” • Wonderful, however DeSantis was just a bit forward of your complete political class, very a lot together with the Biden Administration. So is what he did so mistaken?
* * *
“Glenn Youngkin thinks he has a Republican response to Democrats’ abortion assaults” [Politico]. “The Virginia GOP is making an attempt to flip the script on a difficulty that has dogged Republicans for a yr and a half. Thus far, Republicans have been doing their greatest to not speak about it. However now Youngkin goes after Democrats as extremists who don’t help any restrictions. Republicans, the brand new marketing campaign says, are the affordable ones who again a ban after 15 weeks with exceptions for instances of rape, incest and lifetime of the mom. They’re betting huge on this new tactic: Republicans have just lately launched a serious $1.4 million advert purchase to make that case within the closing stretch of the marketing campaign for management of the state Legislature. ‘The one subject that Democrats are operating on is abortion,’ David Rexrode, the chief director of Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC, stated in an interview on the group’s places of work in Richmond earlier this month. ‘And so since they’re operating assault advertisements on abortion, we’re going to reply on abortion.’ Republicans’ purpose is to neutralize Democrats’ strongest line of assault, even whereas specializing in matters like crime and the financial system to attempt to win. If profitable, it may present a blueprint for a celebration that has struggled electorally because the Supreme Court docket overturned Roe v. Wade.”
* * *
“Phillips is contemplating a New Hampshire presidential main run. Right here’s how he may beat Biden” [MinnPost]. The deck: “Phillips faces an Oct. 27 deadline for deciding whether or not to run for president in New Hampshire’s main.” And: “In his third time period representing the Twin Cities’ western suburbs within the U.S. Home, Phillips injected himself into presidential politics in July of final yr, when he grew to become the primary congressional Democrat to recommend Biden, 80, shouldn’t run once more, citing the president’s age. Phillips, who considers himself a centrist, initially indicated he would solely run for president if Biden have been to drop out. Then he stated his function was to attempt to persuade different reasonable Democrats to problem the president. However that hasn’t occurred. So now he’s contemplating an effort to topple his occasion’s chief. Regardless of his restricted time in authorities, Phillips, 54, may turn into probably the most outstanding Democrat operating towards Biden. And he may really stand an opportunity of successful an essential presidential main if he runs in New Hampshire. The one candidates at present difficult the president in that state are self-help writer Marianne Williamson, who’s struggling together with her marketing campaign, and media figurehead Cenk Uygur, who has welcomed Phillips to affix him in difficult Biden. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. stated just lately he’d run as an impartial as a substitute of a Democrat. As a result of New Hampshire is defying the DNC and Biden’s determination to have South Carolina host the primary presidential main on Feb. 3, the president received’t be on the poll within the Granite State. ‘Biden has very clearly stated South Carolina ought to go first,’ stated College of New Hampshire political science professor Dante Scala. So, with out Biden on the poll, Phillips may conceivably win. However there’s additionally an opportunity he wouldn’t, Scala stated.” • I dunno. “Dean Phillips” appears like a agency; “Dean Phillips,” “Dunder Mifflin.” If Phillips have been the senior associate, “Phillips Dean.”
“Window is closing for any shock 2024 candidates, however they may nonetheless emerge” [ABC News]. “Politicians who’re floated as late-breaking candidates — together with Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn., or Virginia’s Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin — may theoretically nonetheless declare they’re operating for the White Home and even, on paper, go on to win their occasion’s nominations even when they miss the cutoff for the early main and caucus dates, specialists instructed ABC Information…. Specialists stated that lacking submitting deadlines or becoming a member of the 2024 presidential race after some key benchmarks go in early voting states would make it very difficult however not not possible to earn a presidential nomination….. Success as a late-entry candidate would depend upon constructing momentum amongst voters regardless of not campaigning and gaining traction within the early states or having the ability to win any of their delegates, the specialists stated. ‘If in case you have a variety of reputation … oomph you possibly can nonetheless get the nomination, despite the fact that you missed the early primaries,’ stated Richard Winger, a poll entry professional and political analyst…. There may be some precedent for candidates becoming a member of the race with out qualifying to be on the poll in early or key states. Former New York Metropolis Mayor Michael Bloomberg formally entered the 2020 presidential race as a Democrat in late November 2019 however didn’t file in New Hampshire. Former Mass. Gov. Deval Patrick additionally launched an unsuccessful bid that month, lacking deadlines to file in Alabama and Arkansas.” • Wow, Deval Patrick. No matter occurred to the backup Obama?
* * *
“The Democrats Savior? Why Pete Buttigieg May Be President” [1945]. “Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg stays extremely standard amongst Democrats – and a potential presidential candidate sometime. He might be a robust contender for the highest job in 2028. A ballot taken in January confirmed him extra standard than his boss, Joe Biden, amongst 2024 Democratic New Hampshire main voters. Twenty-three % instructed a Granite State ballot taken by the College of New Hampshire that they most well-liked Buttigieg. He had a 69% approval score amongst Democrats in contrast with 49% for Biden.”
“Buttigieg Chased Off Stage By Protesters at Maryland Occasion” [The Messenger]. “limate change protestors on Tuesday chased Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg from a stage as he was being interviewed at an occasion hosted by the Baltimore Banner. The protestors gave the impression to be criticizing a Texas petrochemical venture Buttigieg’s workplace is contemplating, in keeping with the outlet. Buttigieg left the stage briefly whereas safety officers have been unable to right away clear the stage and requested the viewers to go away the room.” • Whoops! (“Seemed to be” as a result of the protesters didn’t “seem like” interviewed!!)
* * *
Republican Funhouse
“Home speaker vote dwell updates: Jim Jordan seems to lack sufficient votes in first spherical to steer the Home” [NBC]. Stay protection. “A number of Home Republicans oppose Jordan, who wants 217 of the 221 GOP caucus members to vote for him.” • Jordan takes it to the mat, and will get pinned. What a disgrace.
“Give the speaker professional tempore speaker energy” [Washington Examiner]. • I like this idea. It’s so late Roman Republic!
Democrats en Déshabillé
Affected person readers, it appears that evidently persons are really studying the back-dated submit! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are lots of updates. So I should try this. –lambert
I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Social gathering (“the Democrat Social gathering is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated submit, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “dwell” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Social gathering is, in truth, a tough drawback. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:
The Democrat Social gathering is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). It follows that the Democrat Social gathering is as “unreformable” because the PMC is unreformable; if the Democrat Social gathering didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. If the Democrat Social gathering fails to control, that’s as a result of the PMC lacks the aptitude to control. (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working components of the Social gathering reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Social gathering (ka-ching, however not fully) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.
Notice, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.
* * *
The occasion left me:
The liberal icon, the Sensible Outdated Man of MSNBC, Invoice Kristol, says the explanation he is now a fervent supporter of the Democratic Social gathering and Joe Biden is as a result of it is Biden and the Democrats who at the moment are probably the most steadfast supporters of Reagan’s ideology. https://t.co/eagYURjuN8
— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) October 17, 2023
Kristol’s not mistaken, is he? Bless his coronary heart.
Realignment and Legitimacy
“Mollie Hemingway: Individuals Can Not Belief Intelligence Companies As a result of Of Their Actions, Incapacity To Repent” [RealClearPolitics]. • Screamingly apparent. So why do I’ve to listen to this from The Federalist, for pity’s sake?
“Allum Bokhari: Meet Michael Hayden, Deep State Spy Chief Turned Media Blacklister” [RealClearPolitics]. • Screamingly apparent. So why do I’ve to listen to this from Breitbart? Gawd, I would like a bathe. I really feel all icky.
#COVID19
“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the tackle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater experiences); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
* * *
Covid is Airborne
I keep in mind the outdated faculty tune: “What’s the colour of horse-sh*t? Brown! Brown! Brown!” Nonetheless true at the moment:
The tip of the PH emergency in a single photograph from @BrownUniversity residence to manufacturing public well being consent, social homicide, and among the worst of the pandemic.
See @LauraMiers thread beneath. https://t.co/bxLbiSdlUL pic.twitter.com/LsqrhmHMh3
— Dogs4Object Permanence🐶 (@B_Dogs4) October 15, 2023
Brown has lots to reply for, within the particular person of Leana Wen; not as a lot as that home of ill-fame, Stanford, however nonetheless lots.
Vaccines
“#Novavax vs mRNA vaccine” [Jeff Gilchrist, Threadreader]. “This thread explains how @Novavax is completely different from the #Moderna and #Pfizer #mRNA #vaccines and describes among the advantages resembling broadened #variant recognition, extra sturdy #immunity, and fewer negative effects.” • Properly value a learn, for these contemplating Novavax.
Immune System Dysregulation
“New York Metropolis struggling to include rising tuberculosis instances” [Politico]. “The town has confirmed about 500 instances of lively tuberculosis to this point this yr, a rise of roughly 20 % from the identical time final yr.” • Huh. ‘Tis a thriller!
Censorship and Propaganda
“Altering nature of Covid: Is it only a common winter bug now?” [BBC]. • By Betteridge’s Legislation, no. BBC grievance line:
Please report this text to the BBC at newssiteerrors@bbc.co.uk or with complaints. I refuted their factors within the thread. #CovidIsNotOver #COVID19 #LongCovid It says much less individuals have died of covid-19 than of the flu in 2023 and makes use of botched case counts. https://t.co/ykpTNlUR6j
— IlluminatiPizza666 (@IPizza666) October 15, 2023
Scientific Communication
Stochastic eugenicism from CDC:
#Clinicians: Fall and winter virus season is right here. Vaccines can be found to offer safety from extreme RSV illness to adults 60 years and over.
Speak to your sufferers about getting shielded from extreme #RSV illness this season: https://t.co/pxDQ1uXJNd #VaccinesWork pic.twitter.com/BBq8i5fRZ4
— CDC (@CDCgov) October 17, 2023
#VaccinesWork, however no point out that #MasksWork, which is odd, since each the (Asian) clinician and the (Black) affected person are carrying them; what for? CDC doesn’t say. After all, they’re modeling a dishevelled blue and a few gormless earlooper, as a substitute of N95s. And there’s, naturally, no HEPA filter within the background…
“One thing Terrible”
Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” is perhaps a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. A number of exceptionally nasty sequelae, most certainly deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we would add mind injury, together with persona adjustments therefrom.
* * *
“Enumerating Distinctive Properties of SARS Cov 2” [Anthony J Leonardi, Easy Chair (AntiDLC)]. “There’s a large foyer for normalization of SARS Cov 2. Total industries depend upon the general public’s return to regular client and dealing behaviors. As such, the rationalizations and reassurances to the general public that SARS Cov 2 is a traditional seasonal Coronavirus are relentless. These are constructed like homilies and catch-phrases, resembling ‘we should be taught to dwell with it,’ and, ‘it’s endemic,’ with the implication of its endemicity referring to the abandonment of efforts which acknowledge its existence, resembling testing…. It’s a full false impression that introduction of a virus to the immune system makes subsequent infections like a typical chilly, and that virulence is because of novelty. If nerves, organs, and immune techniques may converse, they might inform a story of outstanding irritation, getting old, and demise, which we should flip to science to listen to. Right here, I gives you, the reader, clear enumerations the place SARS Cov 2 is in contrast to a typical chilly.” And:
SARS Cov 2 triggers a singular, long-lived inflammatory overreaction unseen in Sepsis and influenza….
SARS Cov 2 sends T cells into the mind whereas deadly influenza doesn’t.
SARS Cov 2 immediately causes autoimmunity by reprogramming a particular sort of T cell known as the T regulatory cell, which has by no means been noticed earlier than.
The human genetic line has not propagated any sarbecovirus parts due to this fact by no means has confronted Sarbecovirus an infection to the extent to evolutionarily adapt, besides within the unlikely theoretical risk of extraordinarily detrimental choice (which means contaminated people didn’t create progeny.)
Elite Maleficence
* * *
Lambert right here: No level watching the tape; the CDC snarled it, by (combined metaphor) decapitating the nationwide supply of wastewater knowledge, with out which we now have no present case knowledge in any respect (though we are able to all the time examine our native sewage plant). All of the lagging indicators are down (besides, after all, for deaths and extra deaths, that are up). Which may imply the present surge is trending down. Nevertheless it won’t! Mandy, good job!
Case Information
NEVER TO BE UPDATED From BioBot wastewater knowledge, October 2:
Lambert right here: Leveling out to a excessive plateau wasn’t on my Bingo card! Maybe FL.1.5.1, excessive within the Northeast, has one thing going for it that different variants don’t have?
Regional knowledge:
Apparently, the upswing begins earlier than July 4, which neither accelerates nor retards it.
• Biobot Analytics Awarded NIDA Funding for Nationwide Wastewater-Based mostly Monitoring Program for Excessive Threat Substances and Others Related to Well being Threat” (press launch) [Biobot]. From September 23. “Biobot Analytics, a worldwide chief in wastewater epidemiology, was awarded a Section III Small Enterprise Innovation Analysis (SBIR) contract from the Nationwide Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA) of the Nationwide Institutes of Well being to conduct nameless, population-level wastewater-based monitoring on medication and overdose reversal brokers. This program is a groundbreaking initiative aimed toward evaluating the distribution of substance use and misuse on a nationwide stage. Over 100,000 overdose deaths occurred in the US final yr and greater than two-thirds of all overdose deaths in 2022 concerned an artificial opioid, in keeping with provisional knowledge. Biobot’s work is an important step ahead within the nation’s collective efforts to handle substance use and misuse. …. This system will present wastewater evaluation of methamphetamine, cocaine, fentanyl, xylazine, naloxone, and their metabolites to 70 communities throughout the US. The SBIR Section III contract represents the continuation of Biobot’s work supported by NIDA’s SBIR Section I and Section II grants.” • So I’m joyful that Biobot continues to be in enterprise, albeit now a celebration to the drug warfare. Nonetheless, the implication of the headline is that SARS-CoV-2 shouldn’t be a “excessive threat substance… related to well being threat.” Actually?
Variants
NOT UPDATED From CDC, October 14:
Lambert right here: September 30 is tomorrow, however by no means thoughts that. Prime of the leaderboard: EG.5 (“Eris“), with HV.1 a robust second, and XBB.1.1.16.6 and FL.1.15.1 trailing. No BA.2.86. Nonetheless a Bouillabaisse…
From CDC, September 16:
Lambert right here: I certain hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to amenities lower by directors of unwell intent).
CDC: “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance knowledge will probably be reported biweekly, based mostly on the supply of constructive check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Seems to be like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.
Covid Emergency Room Visits
NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, October 7:
Drop coinciding with wastewater drop.
NOTE “Charts and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not your complete pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “similar to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for bothMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these individuals a lot. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, no less than for its time interval, that Covid shouldn’t be seasonal, despite the fact that CDC is making an attempt to get us to imagine that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections.
Hospitalization
Bellwether New York Metropolis, knowledge as of October 17:
Nonetheless lowering. (New York State is now falling, too.) I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading.
Right here’s a distinct CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, no less than. October 7:
Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?
Positivity
From Walgreens, October 16:
-0.3%. Nonetheless dropping, although lower than earlier than. (It might be fascinating to survey this inhabitants typically; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and large peer stress, went and received examined anyhow.)
From Cleveland Clinic, October 14:
Lambert right here: I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is sweet*, and we’re starved for knowledge, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is making an attempt to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.
NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s knowledge, September 25:
Again up once more, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed below are the variants for vacationers:
BA.2.86 shrinks. Flash within the pan?
Deaths
NOT UPDATED Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, September 27:
Lambert right here: The WHO knowledge is nugatory, so I changed it with the Iowa Covid Information Tracker. Their technique: “These knowledge have been sourced, by way of the API from the CDC: https://knowledge.cdc.gov/NCHS/Circumstances-Contributing-to-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Stat/hk9y-quqm. This visualization updates on Wednesday evenings. Information are provisional and are adjusted weekly by the CDC.” I can’t appear to get a pop-up that reveals a complete of the three causes (high proper). Readers?
Complete: 1,179,271 – 1,178,851 = 420 (420 * 365 = 153,300 deaths per yr, at the moment’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit greater than the minimizers would really like, although they’ll speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I could must determine that is what the powers-that-be think about “mission achieved” for this specific tranche of demise and illness).
Extra Deaths
The Economist, October 13:
Lambert right here: Based mostly on a machine-learning mannequin.
Stats Watch
Retail: “U.S. Retail Gross sales” [Trading Economics]. “Retail gross sales within the US superior 0.7% mother in September 2023, following an upwardly revised 0.8% rise in August and beating forecasts of a 0.3% advance. The information continues to level to strong client spending regardless of excessive costs and borrowing prices.”
Manufacturing: “United States Manufacturing Manufacturing MoM” [Trading Economics]. “Manufacturing manufacturing within the US rose 0.4% from a month earlier in September 2023, beating market expectations of a 0.1% enhance and following a revised 0.1% fall in August. The index for motor automobiles and components moved up solely 0.3%, as motorized vehicle assemblies have been held down by the continued strike towards three automakers. Elsewhere in manufacturing, positive aspects of 1% or extra have been recorded by wooden merchandise, main metals, and plastics and rubber merchandise, and declines of 1% or extra have been recorded by attire and leather-based in addition to printing and help.”
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Gentleman Want Bonds: “Geopolitical volatility returns to the monetary markets” [The Editorial Board, Financial Times]. “The Vix index — a measure of anticipated volatility — has averaged notably greater since 2020 than within the decade earlier than. The World Uncertainty Index, which measures the prevalence of the phrase “unsure” in analysts’ experiences, has been trending upwards for years and has jumped considerably since 2021. The extra unsure future is altering the playbook of market members, from buyers to central bankers. First, quantitative fashions used to cost property and assess developments are much less significant…. Wanting past charts, steadiness sheets and ratios has its personal implications. Markets shouldn’t have an important file of pricing geopolitical threat and assessing low-probability, high-impact occasions, or ‘tail dangers’ … The problem of measuring geopolitical premia additionally raises the reward for these that may get it proper. There’s a rising demand for professionals who can mix political and macro information with monetary fundamentals.” • Hmm.
The Bezzle:
Sam Bankman-Fried, the previous crypto billionaire, rejected seven completely different iterations of the steadiness sheet at his hedge fund, Alameda Analysis, earlier than he alighted upon one which he felt comfy exhibiting to lenders. https://t.co/WuON1k00F2 pic.twitter.com/XdbMi6Zs1q
— Axios (@axios) October 17, 2023
The Bezzle:
When researchers analyzed the efficiency of 18,000 common gamblers in on line casino video games, solely 13% received over a two-year interval.
However, lower than 1% of day merchants reliably generated a constructive return two years operating.
Bookmark this 🧵 for the subsequent time you’re feeling like day buying and selling: pic.twitter.com/nTBPJ57SUm
— Market Sentiment (@mkt_sentiment) October 14, 2023
Tech: Properly, a lot for formerly-kwown-as-Twitter-alternative BlueSky:
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As we speak’s Worry & Greed Index: 35 Worry (earlier shut: 35 Worry) [CNN]. One week in the past: 31 (Excessive Worry). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Oct 16 at 8:00:00 PM ET.
Groves of Academe
“Greater than a 3rd of Nevada college students chronically absent, persevering with pandemic-era development” [Nevada Independent]. “Ignacio Prado has observed a change at Futuro Academy in East Las Vegas ever because the pandemic: Extra dad and mom are protecting their children at residence if they’re sick….. ‘When I’ve conferences with households, they only type of say again to me a variety of what we stated to them in the course of the pandemic round not desirous to get different individuals sick,’ he stated. ‘Earlier than the pandemic, coming to highschool with a cough wasn’t that huge of a deal.’” A ray of hope that our citizenry shouldn’t be fully wicked? Extra: “Whereas there are lots of the explanation why a pupil might miss college, state training officers say the pandemic has spurred exponential rises in absenteeism charges. They’ve observed better well being consciousness and emphasised how important time away from in-person studying fostered a common lower in pupil engagement that faculties are nonetheless reeling from.” And: “The state’s main approach of addressing absenteeism is thru the Multi-Tiered System of Helps Venture at UNR, [Christy McGill, the state’s deputy superintendent for educator effectiveness and family engagement] stated. The venture supplies faculties and districts with month-to-month coaching on easy methods to greatest determine the causes of power absenteeism. The state training division is answerable for discovering the funds for this system. This system outlines a listing of interventions, starting from providing a faculty refusal evaluation and tutorial catch-up alternatives to monitoring the coed’s attendance for 20 days and creating formal plans with households.” • NOTHING ABOUT VENTILATION!!!! [lambert bangs head on desk]. May or not it’s — observe me carefully, right here — that there’s a major proportion of fogeys who don’t need to go on, or catch, an airborne Stage 3 Biohazard that might injury their kids’s brains for the remainder of their lives? (After all, college directors can be the final to detect that official propaganda is carrying skinny….
Zeitgeist Watch
“The Techno-Optimist Manifesto (parody) [“Marc Andreessen,” Andreessen Horowitz]. Redacted by Grosser:
Rule #1.
“The Baloney Detection Equipment: Carl Sagan’s Guidelines for Bullshit-Busting and Essential Considering” [The Marginalian].
Healthcare
“Driving 100 miles in labor; giving beginning within the ER: Fears rise as 3 maternity models put together to shut in Alabama” [NBC]. “‘No person desires girls and youngsters to do poorly, however you can also’t lose cash yr over yr on a service line,’ stated Dr. John Waits, CEO of the nonprofit Cahaba Medical Care, which runs medical clinics that take sufferers no matter their capability to pay. A number of of Cahaba’s physicians ship infants at Princeton Baptist and Shelby Baptist. ‘There’s one thing damaged in regards to the funding stream that helps us maintain our girls and youngsters,’ Waits stated.” • Rule #1 as soon as extra.
“Medicare Benefit retains rising. Tiny, rural hospitals say that’s an enormous drawback” [NPR]. “Non-public plans now cowl greater than half of these eligible for Medicare. And whereas enrollment is highest in metropolitan areas, it has elevated fourfold in rural areas since 2010. In the meantime, greater than 150 rural hospitals have closed since 2010, in keeping with the Cecil G. Sheps Middle for Well being Companies Analysis on the College of North Carolina. States resembling Texas, Tennessee and Georgia have had probably the most closures. Medicare Benefit progress has had an outsize affect on the funds of small, rural hospitals that Medicare has designated as ‘essential entry.’ Beneath the designation, government-administered Medicare pays further to these hospitals to compensate for low affected person volumes. Medicare Benefit plans, alternatively, supply negotiated charges that hospital operators say usually don’t match these of conventional Medicare.”
Class Warfare
“Turk Wars: How AI Threatens the Staff Who Gasoline It Edit feedback” [Stanford Social Innovation Review]. The deck: “The much-hyped AI instruments of the longer term are being constructed by a globally dispersed military of information staff.” And: “In August 2022, an organization known as AI Insights issued an enormous request for providers on Amazon Mechanical Turk, an Amazon-owned market the place a globally crowdsourced pool of particular person knowledge staff can settle for small digital duties for pay….. [M]aking a dwelling by Mechanical Turk requires working in quantity…. And so, final yr, when AI Insights posted a request for greater than 70,000 HITs throughout what is often a gradual season on the platform, it represented a bonanza of alternative for “Turkers,” as Mechanical Turk’s staff name themselves. However as they started working, in some instances finishing lots of of HITs, the Turkers quickly realized that AI Insights was rejecting all of their work en masse, with out rationalization. In response to the platform’s pointers, that meant the Turkers wouldn’t be paid, however that AI Insights would get to maintain their work all the identical. Additionally, since particular person Turkers’ approval scores are affected anytime their work is rejected—and since most requesters on the location received’t settle for bids from Turkers with lower than a 99% approval score—the mass rejection additionally despatched many Turkers’ scores tumbling downward, successfully blacklisting them by no fault of their very own. When Turkers contacted Amazon, asking them to intervene, the tech large washed its palms of the scenario, saying they’ll’t ‘get entangled in disputes between staff and requesters.’” • Not good individuals in any respect.
Information of the Wired
Analog FTW:
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Contact info for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photographs of crops. Greens are tremendous! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you would like your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it at the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From IM:
IM writes: “Some Icelandic moss and mother-of-thyme perched on the sting of a cliff in Thingvellir nationwide park, the place the Atlantic rift pokes above sea stage. That is on the North American facet.”
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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the annual NC fundraiser. So in case you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible kind. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get nervous. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I consider that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:
Right here is the display that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
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