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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Sort readers, thanks a lot for all of your assistance on my question yesteday. –lambert
Hen Track of the Day
Stone Partridge, PN du Niokolo-Koba–Campement du Lion, Tambacounda, Senegal. “Two sorts of calls will be heard, the r-weet..r weet within the beggining and tiuu tiuu ultimately. Modifying: Excessive-pass filter, some amplification.”
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Politics
“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are the truth is a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
The Constitutional Order
For reference, right here is Part Three of the Fourteenth Modification of the USA:
Part 3. No particular person shall be a Senator or Consultant in Congress, or elector of President and Vice President, or maintain any workplace, civil or navy, underneath the USA, or underneath any State, who, having beforehand taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the USA, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an government or judicial officer of any State, to assist the Structure of the USA, shall have engaged in rebel or insurrection in opposition to the identical, or given assist or consolation to the enemies thereof. However Congress could, by a vote of two-thirds of every Home, take away such incapacity.
Additionally for reference, “The Sweep and Drive of Part Three” (PDF) [William Baude and Michael Stokes Paulsen, University of Pennsylvania Law Review]. • That is the paper, from Federalist Society members, observe effectively, that lit the fuse..
* * *
“Colorado Supreme Court docket declares Donald Trump is ineligible for the White Home” [Associated Press]. “A divided Colorado Supreme Court docket on Tuesday declared former President Donald Trump ineligible for the White Home underneath the U.S. Structure’s rebel clause and eliminated him from the state’s presidential major poll, organising a probable showdown within the nation’s highest courtroom to determine whether or not the front-runner for the GOP nomination can stay within the race…. The courtroom stayed its determination till Jan. 4, or till the U.S. Supreme Court docket guidelines on the case. Colorado officers say the problem should be settled by Jan. 5, the deadline for the state to print its presidential major ballots…. Trump’s attorneys had promised to attraction any disqualification instantly to the nation’s highest courtroom, which has the ultimate say about constitutional issues…. Trump misplaced Colorado by 13 proportion factors in 2020 and doesn’t want the state to win subsequent 12 months’s presidential election. However the hazard for the previous president is that extra courts and election officers will comply with Colorado’s lead and exclude Trump from must-win states.” • Right here is the opinion–
“Supreme Court docket Case No. 23SA300 Attraction Pursuant to § 1-1-113(3), C.R.S. (2023) District Court docket, Metropolis and County of Denver, Case No. 23CV32577 Honorable Sarah B. Wallace, Decide” (PDF) [The Supreme Court of the State of Colorado]. • Footnote 2 raises an fascinating level:
“Colorado Supreme Court docket” [BallotPedia]. “As of August 2021, all seven judges on the courtroom have been appointed by Democratic governors.” • The final appointment was in 2021.
“Trump disqualified from Colorado’s 2024 major poll by state Supreme Court docket” [WaPo]. “The Colorado Supreme Court docket’s majority decided that the trial choose was allowed to contemplate Congress’s investigation of the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol, which contributed to the willpower that Trump engaged in rebel. ‘We conclude that the foregoing proof, the nice bulk of which was undisputed at trial, established that President Trump engaged in rebel,’ the bulk wrote.” • Rebel is against the law (“18 U.S. Code § 2383 – Riot or rebel“). Trump has by no means been charged with it, not to mention convicted of it; nor have another Capitol rioters, not even the Proud Boys. By Occam’s razor, the best explantion for Trump not being charged is that the prosecutor felt they couldn’t make the case. So, as an alternative, we launder a Democrat investigation into facticity by means of the courtroom system. That’s due course of?
“Trump barred from showing on Colorado presidential major poll, state Supreme Court docket guidelines” [New York Post]. “One of many three dissenting judges on the state Supreme Court docket wrote Tuesday that questions surrounding the case have been too complicated to be decided on the state stage, and the federal government can’t bar somebody from holding workplace with out due course of. ‘Even when we’re satisfied {that a} candidate dedicated horrible acts up to now — dare I say, engaged in rebel — there should be procedural due course of earlier than we are able to declare that particular person disqualified from holding public workplace,’ Chief Justice Brian D. Boatright wrote.” • That idea of “self-execution” is an actual Pandora’s field, isn’t it?
“Decide Luttig explains why Donald Trump is disqualified from the presidency” [MSNBC]. Luttig: “All that any of us are capable of do is consider the optimistic, goal legislation — on this occasion, the Structure and Part 3 of the 14th Modification. Underneath the plain, clear phrases of Part 3, the previous president could be disqualified from holding the presidency once more — particularly, given that his plan and energy and try and overturn the 2020 presidential election and stay in energy, however that the American folks had voted to confer the powers of the presidency on Joe Biden, constitutes a transparent violation of the Govt Vesting Clause within the Structure, which prescribes {that a} president will maintain workplace for under a four-year time period, until and till he’s re-elected to the presidency by the American folks. The previous president’s effort to overturn the election and stay in energy is exactly what constitutes a insurrection in opposition to the Structure of the USA.”
“Why Did Trump Supporters Storm the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6? Due to Trump, New Harvard Research Finds” [The Harvard Crimson]. “Shorenstein Heart researchers discovered that 20.6 p.c of the rioters, a plurality, have been motivated to participate within the riot as a result of they supported Trump. One other 20.6 p.c of the rioters cited Trump’s fraudulent claims that the 2020 presidential election was rigged as their major motive for collaborating within the Jan. 6 riot. The third commonest motive for attacking the Capitol: a want to begin a civil battle or an armed revolution, in response to the research. Virtually 8 p.c of defendants indicated it was their major motivation.” • Hmm.
“Yielding to Temptation: Colorado’s Supreme Court docket Blocks Democracy to Bar Trump on the 2024 Poll” [Jonathon Turley, The Messenger] “The result’s an opinion that lacks any limiting rules. It locations the nation on a slippery slope the place pink and blue states might now interact in tit-for-tat disqualifications. In keeping with the Colorado Supreme Court docket, these selections don’t should be primarily based on the particular feedback made by figures like Trump. As a substitute, it dominated, courts can now embody any statements made earlier than or after a speech to determine a ‘true risk.’” • From the choice, on “true threats”:
Hmm. Presumably the folks doing the “self-executing” half will probably be figuring that out?
“Colorado’s ineligibility ruling threatens profound disruption in 2024” [Politico]. “The ruling will nearly definitely wind up within the U.S. Supreme Court docket. And whereas the widespread expectation is will probably be reversed or placed on maintain, the mere truth of it reaching the nation’s highest courtroom threatens to supply dramatic fallout. The judges have been positioned by Trump, as soon as once more, within the thick of a novel and extremely fraught mixture of politics and constitutional legislation — not solely grappling with a difficulty that a number of of their Federalist Society brethren have put forth however pressured to determine the destiny of the ex-president who put in half of its present majority…. Roberts and the remainder of the Court docket will probably be underneath huge stress — and intense scrutiny from each Trump and his political opponents. After the 2020 presidential election, the excessive courtroom repeatedly swatted down a sequence of challenges from Trump and his allies regardless of the commanding six-justice conservative majority constructed on Trump’s watch.”
“Will the usSupreme Court docket Preserve Donald Trump Off the Poll ? Some Preliminary Ideas” [Election Law Blog]. “It’s removed from clear that the U.S. Supreme Court docket will attain the deserves—there are numerous authorized doctrines like ripeness and mootness that will give the Court docket a strategy to keep away from deciding the problems within the case. However it’s crucial for the political stability of the U.S. to get a definitive judicial decision of those questions as quickly as potential…. As soon as once more the Supreme Court docket is being thrust into the middle of a U.S. presidential election. However not like in 2000 the overall political instability in the USA makes the scenario now way more precarious.”
“Trump barred from showing on Colorado presidential major poll, state Supreme Court docket guidelines” [New York Post].
Vivek weighs in:
I pledge to withdraw from the Colorado GOP major poll till Trump can be allowed to be on the poll, and I demand that Ron DeSantis, Chris Christie, and Nikki Haley do the identical instantly – or else they’re tacitly endorsing this unlawful maneuver which may have disastrous… pic.twitter.com/qbpNf9L3ln
— Vivek Ramaswamy (@VivekGRamaswamy) December 20, 2023
2024
Lower than a 12 months to go!
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The Democrat existential dilemma: The PMC are too slender a base for a everlasting majority:
It’s not an American downside or (largely) a Biden-specific downside. Biden is attempting to carry collectively a coalition of those that need populism and people who despise the general public. They hate one another. This can be a world dynamic. https://t.co/DwJ4clHwML
— Matt Stoller (@matthewstoller) December 19, 2023
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“‘Medicare for All’ invoice turns into a part of Dean Phillips’ presidential pitch” [Politico]. • Oh, how I want…. Factor is, Medicare simply isn’t that nice anymore, and I think that’s why the one payer neighborhood ought to have caught with “single payer,” and so what if it’s wonky. Too late for tears….
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“”Not one of the above” possibility to look on Colorado’s Democratic presidential major ballots” [Colorado Sun]. “The Colorado Democratic Get together added a “noncommitted delegate” option to the March 5 poll that offers voters the choice of sending untethered representatives to the Democratic Nationwide Conference subsequent 12 months to pick out the celebration’s nominee. As a substitute of being sure to assist a Democratic presidential major candidate supported by Colorado voters, the delegates might again any candidate on the ground of the nominating conference. Folks voting within the Republican major gained’t have an identical alternative.”
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Democrats en Déshabillé
Affected person readers, it appears that evidently persons are truly studying the back-dated put up! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are numerous updates. So I should try this. –lambert
I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Get together (“the Democrat Get together is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated put up, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “stay” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Get together is, the truth is, a tough downside. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:
The Democrat Get together is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). It follows that the Democrat Get together is as “unreformable” because the PMC is unreformable; if the Democrat Get together didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. If the Democrat Get together fails to manipulate, that’s as a result of the PMC lacks the aptitude to manipulate. (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working components of the Get together reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Get together (ka-ching, however not completely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.
Word, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.
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“John Fetterman Exits the Progressive Coalition” [Political Currents by Ross Barkan]. ” Fetterman is within the first 12 months of a six-year time period. He has time to restore relations with progressives or sever ties altogether. At this level, the latter is quickly taking place anyway. For the Pennsylvania activist class, Fetterman is more and more persona non grata. Since he additionally must attraction to centrists and Israel-supporting Jews within the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh metropolitan areas, he won’t care in any respect. If he does go down this path, although, he’ll should discover a new strategy to increase money and wrangle volunteers. There are lots of younger individuals who confirmed as much as canvass for Fetterman 2022 that won’t trouble for Fetterman 2028. They’ll have lengthy reminiscences—and different heroes by then.” • Fetterman’s marketing campaign was sensible. The candidate, troubled. The elected, a tragic story.
“Senator Warren Escalates Criticism of Crypto Trade Teams in New Letters” [Yahoo Finance]. “Senator Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., has intensified her criticism of the crypto trade in a sequence of letters despatched to trade teams and the Coinbase alternate. In a letter to the Coin Heart crypto advocacy group, Warren accused the trade of utilizing a ‘not-so secret weapon’ by hiring former protection and legislation enforcement officers in an alleged try and undermine Congressional efforts to deal with the function of crypto in financing terrorist teams, together with Hamas. ‘This abuse of the revolving door is appalling, revealing that the crypto trade is spending tens of millions to present itself a veneer of legitimacy whereas combating tooth and nail to stonewall frequent sense guidelines designed to limit the usage of crypto for terror financing – guidelines that might minimize into crypto firm income,’ Warren wrote within the letter. Comparable letters have been additionally despatched to the Blockchain Affiliation and Coinbase, in response to Politico. Warren’s criticism stems from her issues in regards to the potential use of crypto to finance terrorist organizations, notably in mild of Hamas’ assault on Israel in October.”
1/ Tonight, I acquired a letter from Sen. Warren criticizing a current letter to Congress cosigned by dozens of former US navy, intelligence officers, and nationwide safety professionals.
Right here’s the letter from Nov. 15: https://t.co/IFBH7m5ywU
— Kristin Smith (@KMSmithDC) December 19, 2023
Realignment and Legitimacy
#COVID19
“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the deal with given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reviews); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
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Covid is Airborne
Handwashing audits v. airborne aerosol audits:
💯
I’ve labored in a number of international locations and I’ve skilled handwashing police exercise in all.
They wander round with clipboards… ticking stuff…
I’ve not seen this audit exercise as soon as for N95… anyplace. Not even exterior the SARS1 affected person’s room. https://t.co/GX7rdWgRqW
— Dr Noor Bari (@NjbBari3) December 16, 2023
Scientific Communication
“COVID-19 ranges excessive forward of vacation journey season” [Axios]. “Virtually each state reporting such information is displaying at the least “excessive” ranges in comparison with baseline developments, with many reporting “very excessive” ranges, as outlined by the CDC.” • Axios redesigned CDC’s “50 shades of gray” right into a coloration scheme that really suggests hazard:
“One thing Terrible”
Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” is likely to be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. A lot of exceptionally nasty sequelae, almost definitely deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we would add mind injury, together with persona modifications therefrom.
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Vehicle accidents as a proxy for society-wide lack of government perform?
I used to be in a site visitors security committee mtg right here (US) final week. Man from freeway patrol mentioned we’re seeing “one thing very completely different on the roads proper now than we’ve ever seen earlier than.” Hmm what else has occurred not too long ago v diff from something we’ve seen earlier than? +
— 😷 la flaneuse (@laflaneuse) December 17, 2023
Origins Debate
Lambert right here: I don’t recall a touch upon this yesterday, and it’s the truth is essential.
“American scientists misled Pentagon on analysis on the Wuhan Institute of Virology” [U.S. Right to Know]. “U.S. Proper to Know has obtained [how] an early draft of DEFUSE [A 2018 research proposal called DEFUSE called for synthesizing spike proteins with furin cleavage sites] with feedback from “PD” and “BRS.” Emails present these commenters to be “Peter Daszak” and “Baric, Ralph S.”” The undertaking was not authorised, however the annotations on the draft look to this bystander to be exceptionally nasty:
The Wuhan Lab, in different phrases, will use the cheaper BSL-2 facility:
“BSL-2 experiments are extra handy and cheaper than BSL-3 experiments … Nevertheless, BSL-2 offers a far decrease stage of biosafety than BSL-3 does. This decrease security stage is very harmful for experiments involving viruses that may be transmitted by air,” [Justin Kinney, a quantitative biologist at Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory and co-founder of Biosafety Now] mentioned. “It is rather regarding that Daszak and Baric seem to have thought of it reliable to maneuver high-risk experiments from BSL-3 to BSL-2. It’s also regarding that they seem to have thought of doing so in secret, as an alternative of revealing this essential change of experimental plans and biosafety precautions of their grant proposal.”
Not a great look, on the very least. And initiatives that aren’t authorised can get recycled into initiatives which might be.
Elite Maleficence
“Failure to guard: COVID an infection management coverage privileges poor-quality proof” (preprint) [medRxiv]. Vital. From the Conclusion: “Most of the issues we and others have raised relating to the Loeb 2022 research are each main and apparent. The preliminary proposal to make use of discontinuous use of N95 in opposition to a suspected aerosol hazard is a deadly flaw by itself, and can be current in two influenza research usually cited as proof in opposition to efficacy of N95: one by Loeb in 2009 and one by Radonovich in 2019. Their uncritical embrace together with the flawed and controversial Cochrane overview in efforts to downgrade the extent of safety required for SARS-CoV-2 highlights a have to halt these efforts till good religion will be confirmed (versus being e.g. an try and assemble a retroactive justification for prior failures to offer enough PPE). This consists of any and all makes an attempt to scale back PPE necessities for infectious aerosols, particularly together with the HICPAC course of, which depends considerably on the fatally flawed research listed above, and through administrative manipulations comparable to altering the classification of SARS-CoV-2 as an RG3 pathogen. All PPE selections ought to be absolutely clear and standards-based, and people requirements shouldn’t be weakened within the absence of a real interdisciplinary consensus together with representatives of affected employees. Efforts to override these requirements or subordinate them to EBM heuristics(199,200) ought to be completely ended.” • A large takedown of Loeb M, Bartholomew A, Hashmi M, Tarhuni W, Hassany M, Teen I, et al. Medical Masks Versus N95 Respirators for Stopping COVID-19 Amongst Well being Care Employees. Ann Intern Med. 2022 Dec;175(12):1629–38. Loeb and Conly are, apparently, operating buddies.
“Challenge NextGen is ignoring new COVID-19 antivirals once we want them most” [The Hill]. “The $5 billion initiative being administered by Biomedical Superior Analysis and Improvement Authority (BARDA)-led Challenge NextGen has did not spend money on the following era of oral COVID-19 antivirals. Subsequent-generation oral antivirals, a few of that are already in improvement, are more likely to be essentially the most sensible and productive funding to assist shield our most at-risk people and convey us nearer to shifting past this pandemic. Nevertheless, with out authorities/personal partnerships much like what have been applied for vaccines and monoclonal antibody improvement, new next-generation oral antivirals at the moment in improvement could not attain the end line. … Challenge NextGen’s funding priorities have persistently uncared for oral antivirals and, as an alternative, prioritized vaccines and monoclonal antibodies (mAbs), as evidenced by every of its funding rounds for packages accomplished so far. Whereas these instruments have been helpful in mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic, they alone can’t be a profitable long-term technique. We’re caught in a perpetual recreation of catch-up with up to date vaccines which might be usually outdated earlier than they’re even accessible as a consequence of new SARS-CoV-2 mutations. COVID-19 mAbs have been even much less dependable, as the primary spherical of authorizations have been shortly revoked as a consequence of waning efficacy.”
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Case Knowledge
NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater information, December 18:
Lambert right here: As a completely “intestine really feel” tapewatcher, I’d anticipate this peak to satisfy or exceed the 2 earlier Biden peaks; in any case, we haven’t actually begun the following bout of vacation journey, or the following rounds of superspreading occasions celebrations. Plus college students haven’t come from from faculty, after which returned. So a better peak appears just about “baked in.” And that’s earlier than we get to new variants, like JN.1. The true factor to look at is the slope of the curve. If it begins to go vertical, and if it retains on doing so, then maintain onto your hats. (Subsequent week’s studying, nevertheless, is Christmas Day; there might be a data-driven drop.) Keep secure on the market! Solely 14 superspreading days till Christmas!
Regional information:
Exhausting to see why the regional cut up (and it certain could be good to have extra granular information). Climate forcing Northerners indoors? Appears facile. There’s snow within the Rockies (inexperienced coloration, West), for instance.
• Seems like wastewater continues to be an acceptable proxy for circumstances:
To summarize my actual time interested by the European COVID wastewater spikes.
1. I’ve discovered no proof that it’s exaggerated due to altering methodologies.
2. I’ve discovered no constant proof that JN.1 is extra GI tropic (not dominated out, however unlikely rationalization).
1/
— Marc Johnson (@SolidEvidence) December 17, 2023
Variants
NOT UPDATED From CDC, December 9:
Lambert right here: JN.1, proven on the NowCast for the primary time, arising quick on the skin, whereas BA.2.86 fades.
From CDC, November25:
Lambert right here: I certain hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to amenities minimize by directors of unwell intent).
CDC: “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance information will probably be reported biweekly, primarily based on the provision of optimistic take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Seems like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.
Covid Emergency Room Visits
From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, December 16:
Lambert: Return to upward motion. Solely per week’s lag, so this can be our greatest present nationwide, present indicator.
NOTE “Charts and information offered by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not your complete pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “similar to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for bothMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these folks a lot. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, at the least for its time interval, that Covid shouldn’t be seasonal, despite the fact that CDC is attempting to get us to consider that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections. And naturally, we’re not even stepping into the standard of the wastewater websites that we now have as a proxy for Covid an infection general.
Hospitalization
NOT UPDATED Bellwether New York Metropolis, information as of December 18:
Lambert right here: I don’t like that little upward spike (you’ve received to look intently at the newest date). Let’s hope it doesn’t preserve taking place.
NOT UPDATED Right here’s a distinct CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, at the least. December 9:
Shifting forward briskly!
Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and information offered by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Take a look at Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?
Positivity
NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, December 18:
-0.3%. Down. (It will be fascinating to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer stress, went and received examined anyhow.)
From Cleveland Clinic, December 16:
Lambert right here: Plateauing. I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is sweet*, and we’re starved for information, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is attempting to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.
NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s information, November 27:
Turning upward.
Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed here are the variants for vacationers, November 27:
BA.2.86 blasting upward. This might be an incredible early warning system, if the warning have been the truth is early as an alternative of weeks late, good job, CDC.
Deaths
NOT UPDATED Right here is the New York Instances, primarily based on CDC information, December 9:
Stats Watch
There are not any official statistics of curiosity immediately.
* * *
The Economic system: “The financial 12 months forward is not going to be binary” [Financial Times]. “However financial actuality in 2024 is more likely to be far much less binary, and way more nuanced, than many market members and policymakers consider. The primary and most blatant is that the pandemic and the coverage response to it has made it very troublesome to foretell the place the US and world economic system will probably be primarily based on outdated fashions. Employment, wages and different key metrics are refusing to comply with historic developments in lots of locations. Second, decoupling and the rise of commercial coverage have launched a brand new dynamic into fiscal coverage and commerce relations — one that may proceed to play out irrespective of who wins the US presidential election subsequent 12 months. And third, there’s an ongoing rate of interest arbitrage affecting enterprise and shoppers that also has years to run.” • For each one and two, the slogan I’ve been toying with applies: The one actual market is the labor market.
Media: “ChatGPT Is Turning the Web Into Plumbing” [The Atlantic]. “Earlier immediately, OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, introduced a partnership with the media conglomerate Axel Springer that appears to get us nearer to a solution. Underneath the association, ChatGPT will achieve the capability to current its customers with ‘summaries of chosen world information content material’ revealed by the information organizations in Axel Springer’s portfolio, which incorporates Politico and Enterprise Insider. The small print usually are not altogether clear, however the announcement signifies that while you question ChatGPT, the bot will be capable to spin up responses primarily based on Axel Springer tales, accompanied by hyperlinks to the tales themselves. Likewise, materials from Axel Springer publications will probably be used as coaching information for OpenAI, advancing the corporate’s merchandise—which can have already consumed one thing like your complete web.” • An autocoprophagic doom loop, when the summaries get fed again into the coaching units, as they are going to.
The Bezzle: “Electrical scooter firm Hen information for chapter” [TechCrunch]. • That’s a rattling disgrace.
* * *
At the moment’s Worry & Greed Index: 79 Excessive Greed (earlier shut: 79 Excessive Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 67 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Dec 20 at 1:02:56 PM ET.
Groves of Academe
“Swimming Swimming pools and Granite Counter tops: How Faculty Dorms Obtained So Costly” [Wall Street Journal]. “Many colleges demolished older, cheaper residence halls, switching out double-occupancy rooms and shared hallway loos for extra personal lodging with communal facilities comparable to research lounges, health facilities and swimming swimming pools. The median enhance for the most costly housing providing on the 12 colleges was 114%, adjusted for inflation. Many of those luxurious dorms have been constructed and run by personal builders. The faculties usually obtain a minimize of the hire income, making the dorms a possible gold mine.”
Information of the Wired
“Was an historical bacterium woke up by an industrial accident?” [The Economist]. • That is fascinating, however I’m baffled how you can excerpt it.
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* * *
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