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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Readers, Christmas might be Monday, so I want you Merry Christmas upfront! –lambert
Hen Track of the Day
Crimson-headed Partridge, Mount Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia. “In a lot of the recorded songs the primary one to 5 notes are lacking. Second hen was singing at a distance. After playback the hen was seen twice, crossing the path. Alarm calls have been made in response to playback.”
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Politics
“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are actually a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
The Constitutional Order
“SCOTUS ought to rule unanimously that Structure issues greater than defeating Trump at any price” [Jonathan Turley, New York Post]. “What these 4 justices did was a direct assault on our democratic course of in looking for to bar the most well-liked candidate within the upcoming election… Roberts as soon as noticed that ‘probably the most profitable chief justices assist their colleagues communicate with one voice.’ Previous chief justices from John Marshall to Earl Warren struggled to safe unanimous votes on basic circumstances to reaffirm such defining values. The court docket may assist unify this nation in a method that could be unparalleled in its historical past. It may possibly present that justices who maintain vastly completely different ideological views could be unified on core ideas. It may possibly remind us that, as residents, the Structure is in the end not a covenant with the federal government however with one another. It’s a leap of religion that, as a free folks, we will resolve our shared future and defend our shared identification. The second has come for 9 justices to talk in a single voice.” • Price noting that the Colorado court docket was not unified. As you learn right here, the Ivy Leaguers voted to disqualify. The locals didn’t (although all have been Democrats).
“John Roberts, Donald Trump and the ghosts of Bush v. Gore” [Politico]. “It’s an indication of the court docket’s polarizing politics how rapidly the acquired knowledge on what the justices will do has congealed. Most authorized students consider the 6-3 conservative majority is not going to let the Colorado ruling stand, a lot much less say that its logic ought to apply to the opposite 49 states and throw Trump off the poll in every single place…. Within the looming Colorado case, the excessive court docket has a couple of dozen completely different off-ramps, a few of them extremely technical, by which it may keep away from the pandemonium of disqualifying a number one presidential candidate. A few of these off-ramps could even garner assist from the court docket’s three liberal justices — they, too, might be delicate to the optics right here. However nevertheless the court docket navigates the thicket it’s been thrust into, the Trump circumstances appear certain to pressure Roberts’ effort to revive the court docket’s standing with the general public. The plain political implications of regardless of the court docket decides will additional debunk his outdated argument (from his 2005 affirmation listening to) that justices are like umpires calling balls and strikes — not gamers on the sphere.”
“Colorado Supreme Courtroom justices face a flood of threats after disqualifying Trump from the poll” [NBC]. “Advance Democracy, a nonpartisan, nonprofit group that conducts public curiosity analysis, recognized “vital violent rhetoric” in opposition to the justices and Democrats, usually in direct response to Trump’s posts in regards to the ruling on his platform Reality Social. They discovered that some social media customers posted justices’ electronic mail addresses, telephone numbers and workplace constructing addresses.” • I believe that is prone to be right. Nevertheless, I went to the Advance Democracy website. There’s no About web page; no board, no personnel, no funding. The “Program Areas” web page is crammed with mentions of “disinformation.” It stinks for the Censorship Industrial Advanced, which NBC simply signal-boosted.
Capitol Seizure
“”A Crimson Flag: Is SCOTUS Poised to Overturn Key J6 Felony Depend?” [Declassified with Julie Kelly]. “In a nutshell, after greater than two years of litigation earlier than federal judges in Washington, SCOTUS will assessment the Division of Justice’s use of 1512(c)(2), obstruction of an official continuing, in January 6 circumstances. A ‘splintered’ 2-1 appellate court docket ruling issued in April simply barely endorsed the DOJ’s unprecedented interpretation of the statute, handed in 2002 as a part of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act within the aftermath of the Enron/Arthur Anderson accounting scandal. Justices will assessment the appellate court docket’s muddy choice throughout oral arguments anticipated to happen in March or April. A remaining opinion ought to be introduced earlier than the court docket’s time period ends in June.” • I’d should do some analysis, however has an precise banker ever been charged underneath 1512(c)(2)?
2024
Lower than a yr to go!
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“Hunter Biden Textual content Cited in Impeachment Inquiry Is Not What G.O.P. Suggests” [New York Times]. Re expensive Hunter. quote: “However don’t fear not like Pop I gained’t make you give me half your wage.” “Hunter’s oft-told story about giving half of his wage to his father appeared to originate throughout his freshman yr at Georgetown. His roommate on the time recalled Hunter telling him and his twin brother ‘one million instances’ that then-Senator Biden inspired him to work, saying, ‘You possibly can preserve half of the paycheck, however it’s important to hand over the opposite half for ‘room and board.”… Hunter advised shut pals that he was apprehensive that his daughters had grow to be spoiled. In accordance with relations, he would incessantly inform them the story about how he needed to work in faculty and pay half of his wage to his father, in hopes of encouraging them to be extra self-sufficient…. [Hunter’s daughter, Naomi Biden,] continued: ‘He was repeating a narrative from his college days that I grew up listening to. Do folks actually suppose he was texting me issues like, ‘I give pop half of the Burisma cash’? No. That’s loopy.’” • Effectively, the entire story is sourced from Biden household and pals; one thing documentary, like a letter, can be good. Discover additionally that Naomi, in traditional Biden style, distorts the argument: “Half your wage” appears like a daily fee; what the Massive Man all the time bought; the default setting. It’s totally believable that the drug-crazed and depressed Biden would blurt out the reality, particularly since half the household have been dipping their beaks anyhow. Naomi says “half of the Burisma cash,” which does sound loopy, as a result of certainly anyone with Biden blood is aware of to maintain schtum about particular person offers? However what Naomi says Hunter stated just isn’t what Hunter stated.
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“DeSantis’s Tremendous-PAC Is Imploding, A lot Like His Marketing campaign” [Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine]. “The issue in DeSantis-land that’s getting probably the most consideration is the conspicuous collapse of his once-vaunted group, which depended to an uncommon diploma on offloading core marketing campaign capabilities to a super-PAC (named “By no means Again Down”) that would obtain limitless contributions in trade for maintaining a long way from the candidate himself. This construction did certainly make it doable for Staff DeSantis writ massive to financial institution an terrible lot of cash (together with tens of thousands and thousands left over from his 2022 gubernatorial marketing campaign) and plan a really labor-intensive early-state area operation. However By no means Again Down additionally excessively trusted previous Republican super-PAC-based marketing campaign fashions. The outcomes from that strategy have ranged from blended, like Ted Cruz’s 2016 marketing campaign (wherein By no means Again Down CEO Jeff Roe and plenty of of his associates have been distinguished), to disastrous (the 2016 Jeb Bush marketing campaign).” • Ted Cruz? What?
Democrats en Déshabillé
Affected person readers, evidently individuals are truly studying the back-dated publish! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are various updates. So I should do this. –lambert
I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Social gathering (“the Democrat Social gathering is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “stay” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Social gathering is, actually, a tough drawback. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:
d>. (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working components of the Social gathering reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Social gathering (ka-ching, however not totally) these components comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence group.
Be aware, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.
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“His Shock Win Flipped a Pennsylvania County. Now He Vows to Elevate Hell over Its Deadly Jail.” [Bolts]. “By any commonplace measure, [Justin Douglas’s] marketing campaign appeared doomed from the beginning: He had no paid employees or workplace. His group of volunteers, just a few pals of his with zero mixed marketing campaign expertise, met within the nook of a Starbucks in Hershey. He ran with out institutional backing or cash; whereas his opponents mixed to spend lots of of hundreds of {dollars}, Douglas experiences spending solely about $12,000. And he centered his marketing campaign round denouncing the truth that so many individuals have died in Dauphin County’s jail—an uncommon focus, to say the least, for a politician. He spent roughly a fifth of the little marketing campaign cash he raised on a single, highway-side billboard highlighting the deadly lock-up, which sits between Harrisburg and the Douglas household dwelling close to the southeast fringe of the county. Dauphin County has admitted a minimum of two jail deaths in every of the final 4 years, a tempo that stands out even by horrible nationwide requirements. ‘Eighteen prisoners lifeless since 2019,’ Douglas’ billboard learn. ‘Vote for change on Nov. 7.’” • Sparked by “Run for One thing,” which makes me lppk askance. Nonetheless, fascinating!
#COVID19
“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the handle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater experiences); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
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Maskstravaganza
GBD goons in favor of presidency handouts:
I will be laughing about this for days.
Guess who recommends utilizing N95 masks throughout instances of excessive transmission.
That is sensible. pic.twitter.com/iCvs3yrCgZ
— tern (@1goodtern) December 22, 2023
Good to see Bharratacha and Kilduff nonetheless agitating so arduous for this. Oh, wait…
Transmission
The percentages:
7/A small Christmas gathering of 7-10 folks means a 25% probability somebody has infectious COVID
20 folks = 50% probability
Flight or restaurant with 100 folks = 97% probability somebody has infectious COVID pic.twitter.com/T3BCLLyX9q
— Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA (@michael_hoerger) December 18, 2023
“One thing Terrible”
Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” may be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. Numerous exceptionally nasty sequelae, most definitely deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we would add mind injury, together with character adjustments therefrom.
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Elite Maleficence
How your folks at CDC need you to remain secure over the vacations:
Unfold cheer this vacation season — not germs! Take a look at our ideas for staying wholesome. pic.twitter.com/WhEdP8UoR1
— Mandy Okay. Cohen, MD, MPH (@CDCDirector) December 22, 2023
Mandy has recommendation for respiratory diseases solely. Should you’re feeling sick, keep dwelling. (Covid is asymptomatic, but one more reason to not lump it in with RSV and the Flu. Don’t unfold germs. Get examined and handled. And — that is the very best — should you’re at larger threat, see your physician should you get sick (no point out that there are measures you may take to forestall others from getting sick: air flow, filtration, or masking, which apply to RSV, the Flu, and Covid, as a result of, as I present right here, RSV and the Flu, in addition to Covid, unfold as airborne aerosols. The huge resistance to airborne transmission within the hegemonic factions of the general public well being institution falls someplace on the spectrum between sociopathic (if unconsciously motivated) and eugenicist (if aware). And regardless of the motivation, they’re killing folks. Institutionally, to not point out morally and ethically, it’s completely extraordinary.
There’s a lot incorrect with this from NPR:
I’ve helpfully annotated the graphic:
[1] “When mandatory.” How do we all know “when mandatory”? A lot of the knowledge is dangerous, and what’s good is lagged; wastewater knowledge, for instance, lags per week, loads of time for an outbreak. I urge {that a} system of layered safety is all the time mandatory, a minimum of till Covid is eradicated — or the air is clear. The PMC do love their homework, so that they love the thought of learning the information after which adjusting their conduct, like Wachter. No.
[2] Naturally, a Saggy Blue, as an alternative of the way more effecting N95 respirator.
[3] Positive, take off your masks within the midst of the fitness center. What an excellent concept!
[4] “Strive not do choose.” However not too arduous! And in any case, you tried! Additionally, “others” “who select to remain masked” implies that you simply, your self, don’t. Nice messaging, CDC NPR.
[5] “Shut contact” isnt a mode of transmission. How about “sharing air”?
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Case Knowledge
NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater knowledge, December 18:
Lambert right here: As a completely “intestine really feel” tapewatcher, I’d anticipate this peak to fulfill or exceed the 2 earlier Biden peaks; in spite of everything, we haven’t actually begun the subsequent bout of vacation journey, or the subsequent rounds of superspreading occasions celebrations. Plus college students haven’t come from from college, after which returned. So the next peak appears just about “baked in.” And that’s earlier than we get to new variants, like JN.1. The actual factor to look at is the slope of the curve. If it begins to go vertical, and if it retains on doing so, then maintain onto your hats. (Subsequent week’s studying, nevertheless, is Christmas Day; there could be a data-driven drop.) Keep secure on the market! Solely 14 superspreading days till Christmas!
Regional knowledge:
Arduous to see why the regional break up (and it certain can be good to have extra granular knowledge). Climate forcing Northerners indoors? Appears facile. There’s snow within the Rockies (inexperienced colour, West), for instance.
Variants
From CDC, December 9:
Lambert right here: JN.1 now dominates. That was quick.
From CDC, December 9::
Lambert right here: I certain hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to services minimize by directors of unwell intent).
CDC: “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance knowledge might be reported biweekly, primarily based on the provision of optimistic check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Appears like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.
Covid Emergency Room Visits
NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, December 16:
Lambert: Return to upward motion. Solely per week’s lag, so this can be our greatest present nationwide, present indicator.
NOTE “Charts and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not your complete pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “identical to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for bothMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these folks a lot. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, a minimum of for its time interval, that Covid just isn’t seasonal, although CDC is making an attempt to get us to consider that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the present institutional equipment for injections. And naturally, we’re not even stepping into the standard of the wastewater websites that now we have as a proxy for Covid an infection total.
Hospitalization
Bellwether New York Metropolis, knowledge as of December 21:
Lambert right here: Upward spike confirmed, and regarding. That’s a really ugly upward slope, steeper, if my eyes don’t decieve, than any earlier. Will probably be fascinating to see holidays, and post-holidays
NOT UPDATED Right here’s a unique CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, a minimum of. December 9:
Transferring forward briskly!
Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?
Positivity
NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, December 18:
-0.3%. Down. (It might be fascinating to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and large peer strain, went and bought examined anyhow.)
NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, December 16:
Lambert right here: Plateauing. I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is nice*, and we’re starved for knowledge, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is making an attempt to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.
NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s knowledge, November 27:
Turning upward.
Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed below are the variants for vacationers, November 27:
BA.2.86 blasting upward. This is able to be an excellent early warning system, if the warning have been actually early as an alternative of weeks late, good job, CDC.
Deaths
Right here is the New York Instances, primarily based on CDC knowledge, December 18:
Stats Watch
Manufacturing: “United States Sturdy Items Orders” [Trading Economics]. “New orders for manufactured sturdy items in the USA surged by 5.4 p.c month-over-month in November 2023, reversing a 5.1 p.c decline seen in October and considerably surpassing market expectations of a 2.2 p.c enhance.”
Private Revenue: “United States Private Revenue” [Trading Economics]. “Private revenue in the USA went up by 0.4% month-over-month in November 2023, following an upwardly revised 0.3% rise in October and matching market forecasts. Compensation for workers elevated by 0.6% (vs. 0.2% within the earlier month), attributed to larger wages and salaries (0.5% vs. 0.3%) and different related prices (0.4% vs. 0.3%).”
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Antitrust: “GSK, Amneal and Kaleo pull patents from FDA database after FTC problem” [Fierce Pharma]. “Following the U.S. Federal Commerce Fee’s current crackdown on “improper” patents within the FDA’s Orange E book, a minimum of three drugmakers have made the requested adjustments. GSK has eliminated 4 patents associated to inhaler merchandise Advair, Arnuity, Flovent and Ventolin from the Orange E book after the FTC questioned their legitimacy final month. The U.S. antitrust watchdog challenged greater than 100 patents within the FDA Orange E book, arguing that improper listings can delay generic challengers. The patents focused by the company are primarily for drug merchandise that require particular supply units, equivalent to an inhaler or an injector.” • I don’t know what Biden thought he was doing when he appointed Khan, as a result of she’s doing an excellent job. Not that Biden, or the Democrats, deliver it to anyone’s consideration.
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Right now’s Concern & Greed Index: 72 Excessive Greed (earlier shut: 71 Excessive Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 70 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Dec 21 at 1:17:07 PM ET.
Healthcare
“Texas A&M Staff Develops Polymers That Can Kill Micro organism” (press launch) [Texas A & M]. “Antibiotic-resistant micro organism have grow to be a quickly rising risk to public well being. Every year, they account for greater than 2.8 million infections, in accordance with the U.S. Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention. With out new antibiotics, even frequent accidents and infections harbor the potential to grow to be deadly. Scientists are actually one step nearer to eliminating that risk, due to a Texas A&M College-led collaboration that has developed a brand new household of polymers able to killing micro organism with out inducing antibiotic resistance by disrupting the membrane of those microorganisms. ‘The brand new polymers we synthesized may assist combat antibiotic resistance sooner or later by offering antibacterial molecules that function by means of a mechanism in opposition to which micro organism don’t appear to develop resistance,’ stated Dr. Quentin Michaudel, an assistant professor within the Division of Chemistry and lead investigator within the researcg.”
Information of the Wired
“Leonardo Da Vinci’s Self-Powered Cart” [Southeast London Meccano Club]. • I’ve learn numerous British mannequin railroading magazines, and the final sentence of this piece is totally typical: “A HS Walsh and Sons 11mm x 0.3mm x 30mm spring has been earmarked for additional experimentation.” Anyhow, here’s a image of the working mannequin of Leonardo’s cart:
So should you get a Meccano set for Christmas, get pleasure from!
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Contact info for vegetation: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a verify if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photos of vegetation. Greens are positive! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you need your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it at the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From over the transsom:
Somewhat late for harvest photographs, however the crimson is acceptable for the season.
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Right here is the display that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
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