2:00PM Water Cooler 9/21/2023 | naked capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Fowl Tune of the Day

Moustached Grass-Warbler, Nairobi NP, Nairobi, Kenya.

* * *

Politics

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are the truth is a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

The Constitutional Order

“The Dry Run: The Ouster of a County Official as an ‘Insurrectionist’ Creates Ominous Precedents for Trump” [Lawfare]. From 2022; this has been brewing for a while. “A decide in the present day eliminated a county official from workplace beneath Part 3 of the 14th Modification, the hoary post-Civil Warfare provision that bars sure folks from holding workplace if they’ve “”engaged in rebellion”” towards the US. Decide Francis Mathew, of the First Judicial District Courtroom in Santa Fe, ousted Otero County (N.M.) Commissioner Couy Griffin, attributable to his involvement within the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot. In line with attorneys who introduced the case, it represents the primary time a court docket has disqualified an official beneath Part 3 since 1869. (Congress refused to seat a U.S. congressman, Victor Berger, beneath the part in 1919.) Mathew’s 49-page ruling additionally marked the primary formal judicial discovering that the Capitol riot amounted to an “”rebellion”” throughout the that means of that constitutional provision. The choice might have huge repercussions for the nation’s subsequent presidential race, as advocacy teams have vowed to attempt to bar Trump from showing on state ballots on the grounds that his function in instigating the Capitol riot disqualifies him from holding federal workplace. Requested by Lawfare for remark, Griffin, who represented himself within the case, stated in an electronic mail: ‘Excellent instance of tyranny. To make use of the civil courts and the ruling of a liberal district court docket decide to subvert the desire of the individuals who already spoke thr[ough] a failed recall [vote] is tyranny in its purest type. Perhaps that is the beginning of the Biden regime[‘]s conflict on extremely maga People.’”

“Part Three of the Fourteenth Modification and the Imprudence of Originalism” [Ius & Iustitium]. “[T]he finest up to date supply for the unique authorized that means of Part Three adopts a completely totally different method to the interpretation of regulation [from originalism: Griffin’s Case… Baude and Paulsen’s argument for self-execution is in large part an attack on Chase’s opinion. They accuse him of the gravest jurisprudential sins in the originalist bible. Attention to consequences… Attention to authorial intent…. And commitment to the rationality of law…. But I will note the irony implicit in Baude and Paulsen’s decision to attack Griffin’s Case on originalist grounds. Given how naturally Chief Justice Chase takes up the interpretive tools of the classical legal tradition, whence their confidence that originalism is the rule in ‘our constitutional system’”? • Key question!

* * *

“The Sweep and Force of Section Three” [William Baude and Michael Stokes Paulsen, University of Pennsylvania Law Review]. I extremely suggest this piece (and the following dialogue at NC, beginning right here). As a former English main and a fan of shut studying, I’m not averse to “originalism,” of which Baude and Paulsen present a magisterial instance, within the sense that understanding the regulation as a textual content should start with understanding the plain, public that means of the phrases used when the textual content was written. That’s how I learn Shakespeare, or Joyce, so why not the Structure? Simply so long as understanding doesn’t finish there! In any case, I’m working by it. One factor I discover is that there do appear to have been fairly numerous rebellions and insurrections, not simply the Civil Warfare. To me, that is parallel to 1 lesson I drew from Mike Duncan’s Revolutions podcast (episode 1): There are fairly numerous revolutions, too. Alert reader Pensions Man summarizes Baude and Paulsen as follows:

The authors undergo an exhaustive textual and originalism evaluation of Part Three, and their Federalist Society leanings don’t deter them from reaching their conclusion that officers in each State who’re charged with figuring out candidate {qualifications} ought to conclude that Donald Trump is disqualified from being on ballots due to the oath he took on Inauguration Day 2017 and subsequently violated by his function within the rebellion that occurred on January 6, 2021.

Taking “rebellion” as learn (I must do extra studying), this has been extra of my persevering with protection of Part Three.

2024

Time for the Countdown Clock!

* * *

“How Donald Trump’s DOJ gave Biden a serious help within the coming impeachment probe” [Politico]. “In January 2020, the Donald Trump-led Justice Division formally declared that impeachment inquiries by the Home are invalid until the chamber takes formal votes to authorize them. That opinion — issued by the Justice Division’s Workplace of Authorized Counsel — got here in response to then-Home Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s resolution to launch an impeachment inquiry into Trump with out initially holding a vote for it. Not solely is it nonetheless on the books, it’s binding on the present administration because it responds to Tuesday’s announcement by Speaker Kevin McCarthy to authorize an impeachment inquiry into Biden, once more with out a vote…. Biden, because the president, would have extra flexibility about whether or not to heed the OLC opinion. However he might merely select to observe Trump’s precedent. He additionally might have grounds to claim government privilege that might equally tie up GOP investigators — claims Trump additionally lodged to jam his personal inquiry.”

* * *

“The Democrats’ Deal With the Satan” [Wall Street Journal]. “The existential menace to the Democratic institution because the 2020 presidential primaries unfolded was Vermont’s socialist senator, Bernie Sanders. Coming off a giant win within the Nevada caucuses, Sen. Sanders headed to South Carolina with a number one delegate depend of 45—and momentum. The Democrats’ No. 2 vote-getter then wasn’t Joe Biden. It was, unimaginable to recall, Pete Buttigieg, holding 26 delegates after the voting in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. Mr. Biden was third, with 15 delegates after a poor exhibiting in Nevada. Trailing was Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a progressive who lacked Bernie’s mysterious charisma. The Clyburn endorsement, which despatched a sign to the state’s black voters, boosted Mr. Biden to a 48.6% win in South Carolina…. Let’s perceive what occurred again in South Carolina…. The self-esteem now, or euphemism, in each dialog or ballot is that Mr. Biden is “”too outdated.”” As within the twenty fifth Modification’s capability considerations. However the Biden interior circle knew in February 2020 that the previous vp was already on the point of being ‘too outdated.’ Thus the Delaware-basement marketing campaign. However by committing to Mr. Biden, the Democrats obtained possession of the powers of the presidency for 4 years… Now that fellow on the opposite facet of Faustian bargains has proven as much as inform the Democrats their fee is due. After giving them 4 years of extraordinary energy, he’s taking again Joe Biden. What lies forward for the Biden-less occasion may very well be a tough slog.”

“As GOP slams Garland over Hunter Biden probe, he retains repeating he had no function” [FOX]. “As Garland repeated his fundamental solutions with robotic precision – he’s stayed out of it, Weiss a Trump appointee, he had the authority, I promoted him at his request, I can’t talk about ongoing felony investigations – he gave no floor. Normally Cupboard members going through a hostile panel will take a few jabs again, however Garland by no means deserted his Sphinx-like demeanor. Perhaps a few Republicans wished they’d put him on the Supreme Courtroom.” • Video:

The dude within the horn-rimmed glasses is entertaining.

* * *

“Eric Clapton helps elevate $1 million for RFK Jr. marketing campaign” [The Hill] however “Eric Clapton Raises $2M for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Marketing campaign in California [Hollywood Reporter]. Half when to Kennedy’s PAC.

“Who’s Funding the DNC?” [Liam Sturgess, The Kennedy Beacon]. “It’s time to ask immediately: who’s funding the DNC and thus deciding the occasion’s nominee?” Loads of names. This caught my eye: “[T’here are additional donors contributing directly to the DNC. The largest individual donor is Michael Sacks, Chairman and CEO of Grosvenor Capital Management (GCM), an ‘alternative investments‘ firm in Chicago. Sacks is a part-owner of the Chicago-Sun Times newspaper, which ran a story in July titled Don’t let RFK Jr. kill you. The piece is filled with vitriol towards Kennedy and re-interpretations of his criticisms of the pharmaceutical industry, the FDA, and the CIA’s established complicity in the murder of his uncle and father. Sacks is also on the board of directors for the Obama Foundation [of course], whose namesake declared in June that he didn’t anticipate ‘any form of severe main problem to Joe Biden,’ and that the Democratic Social gathering was unified in help of the incumbent. Together with his trifecta of affect in finance, politics and the media, Sacks’ donations are usually not troublesome to view as conflicts of curiosity.” • Then after all there’s the query of the place the cash goes. From 5 years in the past, questions not answered then, and never answered to at the present time:

First phrases: “This smells.” Certainly.

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“3 Financial Dangers That May Resolve the 2024 Race” [Eric Levitz, New York Magazine]. “The linchpin of the case for Democratic optimism, nevertheless, is the belief that public sentiment in regards to the financial system will solely enhance between now and November 2024. By all appearances, widespread antipathy for inflation and different types of post-pandemic financial dysfunction has weighed on Biden’s approval scores over the previous two years. However in latest months, worth progress has slowed whereas employment has remained excessive. The so-called distress index — the unemployment fee mixed with the inflation fee — is now at a decrease degree than it had reached through the reelections of Ronald Reagan, Invoice Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama.” And: “It’s unclear exactly how a lot of the general public’s displeasure with the financial system displays goal materials circumstances and the way a lot derives from media protection or a diffuse discontent with post-pandemic life.” From the commentariat, as materials because the digits to the correct of TOTAL on a ton of receipts. Extra: “Right here, three threat components that threaten to undermine the U.S. financial system — and thus Biden’s reelection prospects — subsequent yr: 1. Oil costs might rise after which stay elevated…. 2. People may all of the sudden begin feeling the ache of the Fed’s speedy interest-rate hikes…. 3. Shopper spending might drop precipitously as households’ reserves are exhausted.” • Let’s wait and see.

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“Democrats maintain profitable particular elections in battleground states” [The Hill]. “Brent Peabody of the Middle for a New American Safety has tracked Democrats’ overperformance in additional than 20 state elections in 2023. The occasion’s candidates have outpaced Biden’s 2020 efficiency by substantial margins. Noting the identical development, ABC Information reported that Democrats had ‘outperformed the partisan lean‘ by a median of 10 % in an evaluation of 23 particular elections in 2023. That doesn’t imply they all the time gained, as 10 % wouldn’t be sufficient in deep purple districts. However it’s a good signal for Democratic presidential hopes in 2024 battleground states.”

PA: “Democrats retain slim management of Pennsylvania Home after particular election” [Associated Press]. “Democrats will retain their one-vote majority within the Pennsylvania Home of Representatives after voters in Pittsburgh on Tuesday elected former congressional aide Lindsay Powell. Powell’s victory offers Democrats a 102-101 majority within the Home. Republicans have a 28-22 majority within the Senate….” • Essential, since PA is a swing state.

Republican Funhouse

“The brand new conservative dilemma” [The New Criterion]. “In setting forth this new technique for the Left, Marcuse broke with Marxism in some essential respects. He didn’t see employees as a revolutionary group, as a result of affluence and consumerism had lulled them into help for capitalist America. Marcuse regarded as an alternative to new teams—college students, intellectuals, blacks, and feminists—to hold ahead the revolution towards capitalism. Marcuse claimed that the variety of allies and allied teams would increase because the capitalist system created calls for for extra lecturers, professors, authorities employees, and the like. Extra essential, Marcuse known as for a cultural revolution fairly than a proletarian seizure of energy—in different phrases, a gradual revolution in values that might destroy consumerism, eradicate racism, change the relations between the sexes, rework instructional practices, and ultimately wreck the prevailing bourgeois tradition that sustained the capitalist order. Whereas conservatives had been celebrating victories within the Chilly Warfare and the restoration of free markets and decrease taxes in the US, radicals had been busy penetrating the system in preparation for a possibility to overthrow it—a possibility they seized in 2020.” • “Some essential respects” is doing numerous work there! 

“Contained in the Subsequent Republican Revolution” [Politico]. “In reality, this system laid out by [Paul] Dans and his fellow Trumpers, known as Mission 2025, is way extra bold than something Ronald Reagan dreamed up. Dans, from his seat inside The Heritage Basis, and scores of conservative teams aligned together with his program are in search of to roll again nothing lower than 100 years of what they see as liberal encroachment on Washington. They need to overturn what started as Woodrow Wilson’s creation of a federal administrative elite and later grew into an enormous, unaccountable and principally liberal forms (as conservatives view it) beneath Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal and Lyndon Johnson’s Nice Society… The Mission 2025 workforce is scouring information and social media accounts to rule out heretics — successfully administering loyalty exams — and launching a so-called Presidential Administration Academy that tutors future MAGA bureaucrats with video courses in ‘Conservative Governance 101.’ Dans says 17 lectures have been ready (with titles equivalent to ‘Oversight and Investigations’ and ‘The Federal Funds Course of’), with one other 13 in manufacturing, and practically a thousand potential new bureaucrats recruited from across the nation are already in coaching. These efforts are supposed to make sure that the chaos and high-level defections of Trump’s first time period by no means occur once more, together with prosecutions like those the ex-president now faces.” • Effectively price a learn; I imply, at the least they’re considering of how you can resolve the issue of Trump not having the ability to rent good assist. That stated, the Bushies had the identical situation: Because it turned out, it actually wasn’t potential to run the nation (or win the Iraq Warfare) with conservative activists and graduates from Christianist regulation faculties. I doubt that Mission 2025 will scale, at the least within the brief time period; sending in some cherub who’s watched just a few movies to take care of one in all Neera Tanden’s fixers — or, extra to the purpose, a spook — isn’t a recipe for achievement. 

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, evidently persons are truly studying the back-dated put up! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are lots of updates. So I should do this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Social gathering (“the Democrat Social gathering is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated put up, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “reside” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Social gathering is, the truth is, a tough downside. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Social gathering is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). It follows that the Democrat Social gathering is as “unreformable” because the PMC is unreformable; if the Democrat Social gathering didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. If the Democrat Social gathering fails to manipulate, that’s as a result of the PMC lacks the aptitude to manipulate. (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working elements of the Social gathering reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Social gathering (ka-ching, however not solely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.

Word, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

There’s a form of sharpening or optimization course of that each Democrat appears to endure. It occurred to AOC. Now Fetterman demonstrates fealty (and should not even know that’s what he’s doing):

Sen. John Fetterman: “If these jagoffs within the Home cease attempting to close our authorities down, and totally help Ukraine, then I’ll save democracy by carrying a swimsuit on the Senate flooring subsequent week.”

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) September 20, 2023

Now, I like picador work as a lot as the following man; no downside there. However “totally help” Ukraine? Moreover being mealy-mouthed (in contrast to, say, “jagoff”, or “save democracy by carrying a swimsuit”) what does that even imply? Boots on the bottom? Nuclear weapons?

NOTE To pre-empt vacuous dogpiling, I persistently expressed admiration for Fetterman’s “Each County, Each Vote” marketing campaign, whereas reserving judgment on the candidate himself. Additionally, scientific melancholy is a horrible illness (although I’ve questioned what I’d really feel if I encountered The World’s Best Deliberative Physique™ for the primary time. Situational melancholy, on the very least, looks as if a completely rational response).

* * *

Michelle Goldberg advised the Democrats to cease doing this:

The “workforce” locution appears new. Right here it’s once more:

That is the mug:

Bourdieu speaks of “symbolic violence” beneath. I’m right here for it.

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Juror Who Made Race Feedback Eliminated From $1.3 Billion Tax Case” [Bloomberg]. “One Black man, Juror 44, allegedly stated the defendants deserved to go to jail ‘as a result of they’re wealthy, White and entitled.’ A White feminine, Juror 26, advised the decide that she’s ‘a White particular person standing up for White folks.’ The decide needed to repeatedly intervene, telling the panel at one level to not say ‘f—— you’ to 1 one other.” And the deck: “Decide lets juror ‘standing up for White folks’ keep on case.” • Idpol pollutes the jury pool….

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the tackle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater studies); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3). 

Keep secure on the market!

* * *

Maskstravaganza

“Masks Mandate Demanded By California College students” [Newsweek]. “Some California faculty college students are combating to have masks mandates reinstated amid ongoing discussions across the return to some COVID-19 precautions. Final week, the Disabled College students Union (DSU) on the College of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), introduced on Instagram {that a} proposed decision titled ‘A Decision to Mandate Masking, Weekly PCR testing, and Upcoming COVID-19 Vaccines, and to Enhance Air flow, and Reinstate the COVID-19 Activity Power’ didn’t obtain sufficient votes from the college’s Undergraduate Pupil Affiliation Council (USAC). A number of the foremost facets of the decision proposed by the DSU included masks necessities for indoor and crowded outside areas, weekly COVID-19 PCR testing necessities, up to date COVID-19 vaccine necessities, and the reinstatement of the COVID-19 activity power at UCLA.” • 

* * *

Having little hair, I’ve a measure of privilege concerning masks and hair points. Maybe these tweets will assist:

thx @yesallcrops for the “carrying an N95 with out fucking up your hair” tutorial. I have been carrying numerous braids for at the least 6 months straight at work now, ever since I switched from carrying a KN95 to an aura indoors, so it was good to put on my hair down for a change 🙂 pic.twitter.com/wpLonAzSoX

— @arthoeheidi.bsky.social (@arthoeheidi) February 16, 2023

And:

To the woman who tweeted in regards to the hack to put on an N95 along with your hair down: I hope your pillow is all the time chilly on either side. pic.twitter.com/pvVs2o9WMk

— Béatrice Copps, MD, FRCPC (@drcopps) February 15, 2023

That is the hack:

Video for @AislingReverdie and others who’ve requested– here is how I placed on my headstrap N95s with out the highest band exhibiting/fucking up my hair!

This may increasingly solely work for sure hair varieties, lengths, and cuts, so in case you have a unique method on your hair, I might like to see🫡 pic.twitter.com/5HaUIVfgCm

— alex (they/she) (@yesallcrops) February 13, 2023

Ear savers:

Obtained a bunch of those masks holder/ear savers for KN95s again when it was not possible to get N95 masks. I’ve small diagonal dainty ears, & the ear loops would not keep on. I put on a ponytail with these so it sits above the hair elastic, stays tight and in place, would not hassle ears pic.twitter.com/okciYahycc

— Chill Wind (@1Chillwind) September 13, 2023

I hope this helps!

* * *

“A historical past of the medical masks and the rise of throwaway tradition” [The Lancet]. “It was primarily the usage of the masks to cowl the mouth and nostril (and beard) through the Manchurian plague of 1910–11 and the influenza pandemic of 1918–19 that turned the face masks into a way of defending medical employees and sufferers from infectious ailments outdoors of the working room. Through the 1918–19 influenza pandemic, carrying a masks grew to become obligatory for police forces, medical employees, and even residents in some US cities, though its use was usually controversial. But in cities like San Francisco, the decline in deaths from influenza was partly attributed to the obligatory mask-wearing insurance policies. At this level, the rationale for carrying masks moved past their authentic use within the working theatre: they now additionally protected the wearer towards an infection.” •

Covid is Airborne

The sociology of standards-writing:

That is why selective Gatekeeping in Requirements Committees, whether or not it is CSA, CDC, WHO or comparable can have such a devastating influence on society.

— Barry Hunt – #DavosSafe (@BarryHunt008) September 21, 2023

Appears like HICPAC….

* * *

“Intro to Far-UV” [Joey Fox]. “At first of the COVID-19 pandemic when folks had been discussing far-UV as a potential resolution, there have been discussions about ozone era. It appeared the consensus was that it isn’t a priority. For instance, this publication got here to the conclusion that “”the contribution of the primary 222-nm wavelength to the ozone era is normally negligible.’… Nonetheless, just lately there have been a number of publications which will be discovered right here and right here which immediately measured ozone era from far-UV lamps. The conclusions had been that the ozone era was important and needs to be thought-about when designing a complete room far-UV system…. As a result of these points are nonetheless not well-known, warning continues to be warranted with far-UV. Higher room UV, whereas not being as efficient, can nonetheless present 20–30 equal air adjustments per hour with out immediately exposing occupants to UV gentle, so it’s presently an affordable various. Nonetheless, in small areas and areas with low ceilings, higher room UV is just not an possibility, so far-UV is likely to be the one risk to get a really excessive disinfection fee and supply a excessive degree of safety. For my part, for private residential use, far-UV will be thought-about, however ought to solely be utilized in high-risk conditions and needs to be accompanied with air flow (open home windows) and filtration to mitigate air air pollution from far-UV. When used on this method, the advantages probably outweigh the dangers.” • Essential!

* * *

“73% of fogeys are involved about how poor air high quality impacts their baby’s well being. Right here’s what consultants say.” [Yahoo Life!]:

For the examine, researchers polled roughly 2,000 dad and mom and requested them about their native air high quality, in addition to how involved they had been about it. The researchers discovered that the majority dad and mom (73%) stated they had been involved in regards to the influence of air high quality issues on their youngsters’s well being, however simply 63% stated they felt that they knew what actions to take round air high quality issues.

Two-thirds of fogeys additionally stated that, previously two years, they skilled at the least in the future with poor or unhealthy air high quality of their space attributable to wildfires, extreme warmth, seasonal adjustments like pollen, elevated ozone ranges and industrial air pollution.

The vast majority of dad and mom — 92% — stated they obtained their details about air high quality from information or climate studies, and so they did the next when ranges had been dangerous:

stored their home windows closed (69%)
restricted their baby’s time outdoor (68%)
had their baby keep away from strenuous outside actions (47%)
used a house air filter (19%)
had their baby put on a masks when outdoor (11%)

Value noting: 14% of these surveyed stated they took no motion when air high quality was poor of their space, however practically 1 in 5 of the dad and mom polled stated they consider that poor air high quality impacted their baby’s well being.

An extended technique to go….. 

Elite Maleficence

“Northeastern College granted $17.5 million by CDC to turn out to be infectious illness detection, prep heart” [FOX]. “The Middle for Superior Epidemic Analytics and Predictive Modeling Know-how, or EPISTORM, will ‘assist detect and put together the US for the following outbreak of infectious illness, particularly in rural areas,’ in keeping with the college’s Northeastern World Information (NGN). The funds will probably be used to coordinate the work of assorted consortium members throughout the U.S. to arrange native communities for outbreaks, together with RSV and the seasonal flu.” However: “The EPISTORM heart will lead a bunch of universities, well being care group and personal corporations within the analysis. Neighboring Boston College, in addition to Indiana College, the College of Florida, and the College of California at San Diego are the academic establishments within the consortium. Different group members embody Los Alamos Nationwide Laboratory, the Fred Hutchinson Most cancers Middle, Concentric Ginkgo Bioworks, MaineHealth and Northern Mild Well being. New Hampshire Division of Well being and Human Companies, the Maine Division of Well being and Human Companies and the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists are additionally represented within the group.” • It could be good to see wastewater and aerosol scientists on the desk (no person from the College of Colorado, for instance?

* * *

Case Information

NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater knowledge, September 18:

Lambert right here: The nationwide drop is due solely to the South. Different alerts — scattered and partial although they be — additionally converge on a drop: ER visits, positivity. We will see. (I would come with CDC’s wastewater map for comparability, but it surely’s eleven days outdated.)

Regional knowledge:

The identical regional variation additionally seems within the Walgreen’s positivity knowledge. Curiously, the upswing begins earlier than July 4, which neither accelerates nor retards it.

Variants                  

NOT UPDATED From CDC, September 16:

Lambert right here: Prime of the leaderboard: EG.5 (“Eris“). Nonetheless BA.2.86 right here, not even within the notice, however see beneath at Positivity.

From CDC, September 2:

Lambert right here: Undecided what to make of this. I’m used to seeing a brand new variant take down the beforehand dominant variant. Right here it seems to be like we’ve a “tag workforce,” all working collectively to chop XBB.1.5 right down to measurement. I positive hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to amenities minimize by directors of unwell intent).

CDC: “As of Could 11, genomic surveillance knowledge will probably be reported biweekly, based mostly on the provision of constructive check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Appears like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, September 16:

Drop coinciding with wastewater drop.

NOTE “Charts and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not all the pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “identical to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is suitable for bothMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these folks a lot. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, at the least for its time interval, that Covid is just not seasonal, although CDC is attempting to get us to consider that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections.

Hospitalization

Bellwether New York Metropolis, knowledge as of September 20:

Drop continues. I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading.

NOT UPDATED Right here’s a unique CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, at the least. September 9:

Word the slight drop, in step with Walgreens. At the least now we now that hospitalization tracks positivity, which is good. Even when we don’t know what number of circumstances there are.

Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC? 

Positivity

NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, September 18:                                                                                       

-8.3%. An infinite drop (so not Labor Day knowledge). Nonetheless, I can’t recall seeing the map so polarized; a lot deep inexperienced, a lot deep purple. Absolutely the numbers are nonetheless very small relative to June 2022, say. Curiously, these don’t correlate with the regional figures for wastewater. (It could be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants typically; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer stress, went and obtained examined anyhow.)

NOT UPDATED Cleveland Clinic, September 16:

Lambert right here: I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is sweet*, and we’re starved for knowledge, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is attempting to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.

NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s knowledge, August 26:

A drop! And listed here are the variants:

No BA.2.86 for 2 of the long-delayed assortment weeks. I’ve highlighted the 2 leaders: EG.5 and FL.1.5.1. Curiously, these are the 2 leaders inside the US additionally, suggesting the nationwide and worldwide bouillabaisse is comparable. Or we’re infecting the world.

Deaths

NOT UPDATED Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, September 13:

Lambert right here: The WHO knowledge is nugatory, so I changed it with the Iowa Covid Information Tracker. Their technique: “These knowledge have been sourced, through the API from the CDC: https://knowledge.cdc.gov/NCHS/Situations-Contributing-to-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Stat/hk9y-quqm. This visualization updates on Wednesday evenings. Information are provisional and are adjusted weekly by the CDC.” I can’t appear to get a pop-up that reveals a complete of the three causes (high proper). Readers?

Whole: 1,175,495 – 1,175,395 = 100 (100 * 365 = 36,500 deaths per yr, in the present day’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit larger than the minimizers would love, although they’ll discuss themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may should determine that is what the powers-that-be take into account “mission completed” for this explicit tranche of demise and illness). 

Extra Deaths

The Economist, September 21:

Lambert right here: That is now being up to date every day once more. Odd. Based mostly on a machine-learning mannequin.

• CDC places out one other gentle:

Appears like CDC is not updating its extra deaths estimate after this month https://t.co/HLMLd67mNx pic.twitter.com/ohvHWPtxN3

— wsbgnl (@wsbgnl) September 21, 2023

Stats Watch

Employment State of affairs: “United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of People submitting for unemployment advantages plummeted by 20,000 to 201,000 on the week ending September sixteenth, the bottom since late January and effectively beneath market expectations of 225,000. In the meantime, persevering with claims fell by 21,000 to a close to eight-month low of 1,662,000 within the earlier week, indicating the unemployed are having a better time discovering new work. The information added to proof that the labor market stays at traditionally tight ranges, pointing to added resilience to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive tightening cycle and including leeway for a possible hike in November.”

Manufacturing: “United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index within the US fell to -13.5 in September 2023, down from 12 in August and worse than market forecasts of -0.7.”

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Finance: “Airways Are Simply Banks Now” [The Atlantic]. “Right here’s how the system works now: Airways create factors out of nothing and promote them for actual cash to banks with co-branded bank cards. The banks award factors to cardholders for spending, and each the banks and credit-card corporations earn cash off the swipe charges from the usage of the cardboard. Cardholders can redeem factors for flights, in addition to different items and providers offered by the airways’ proprietary e-commerce portals. For the airways, it is a nice deal. They incur no prices from factors till they’re redeemed—or ever, if the factors are forgotten. This setup has made loyalty applications extremely profitable. Customers now cost practically 1 % of U.S. GDP to Delta’s American Categorical bank cards alone. A 2020 evaluation by the Monetary Occasions discovered that Wall Avenue lenders valued the foremost airways’ mileage applications extra extremely than the airways themselves. United’s MileagePlus program, for instance, was valued at $22 billion, whereas the corporate’s market cap on the time was solely $10.6 billion. Is that this a superb deal for the American client? That’s a trickier query. Paying for a flight or a resort room with factors might really feel like a free bonus, however as a result of credit-card-swipe charges enhance costs throughout the financial system—Visa or Mastercard takes a minimize of each sale—redeeming factors is extra like getting just a little kickback. Definitely the system is dangerous for People who don’t have points-earning playing cards. They pay larger costs on abnormal items and providers however don’t get the factors, successfully subsidizing the perks of card customers, who are usually wealthier already. Just like the federal reserve, airways situation forex—factors—out of skinny air. In addition they get to determine how a lot that forex is price and what it may be spent on. This helps clarify why the factors system feels so opaque and, usually, unfair. On-line analysts attempt to supply estimates of factors’ money worth, however airways can scale back these values after the very fact and alter how factors will be redeemed.” • Hmm. Readers?

Tech: “‘Harry Potter’ audiobook narrator Stephen Fry stated AI was used to steal his voice, and warned that convincing deepfake movies of celebrities will probably be subsequent” [Business Insider]. “He added: ‘It might subsequently have me learn something from a name to storm Parliament to arduous porn, all with out my data and with out my permission. And this, what you simply heard, was carried out with out my data. So I heard about this, I despatched it to my brokers on either side of the Atlantic, and so they went ballistic —  they’d no thought such a factor was potential.’ Fry stated he warned his agent that this was just the start. ‘It gained’t be lengthy till full deepfake movies are simply as convincing,’ he stated.” • Please don’t inform the Ukrainians. Although they in all probability already know.

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In the present day’s Concern & Greed Index: 46 Impartial (earlier shut: 47 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 54 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Sep 21 at 1:41:53 PM ET.

The Gallery

“A nineteenth Century Masterpiece That Scandalizes Nonetheless” [Vulture]. Olympia, now on the Metropolitan Museum of Artwork. “The Black mannequin is Laure. We have no idea her final identify, although like Meurent she posed for Manet a number of instances. She is wearing a light-weight pink, holding a bouquet of flowers…. Manet has not painted her crudely or with out tenderness, and there may be an consciousness of Laure’s presence and her ideas as she seems to be upon Meurent’s inclined determine….. He described Laure in his journal as being ‘very stunning.’…. He’s a grasp of the colour black; few artists have ever painted such wealthy combos of this shade. His brush dealing with is concurrently studied and fast, deft and unpredictable. …. Though it took a very long time for western audiences to even see Laure correctly, there’s something in her pose that breaks with different conventions of perspective. Just like the viewer, she is taking a look at Meurent. However the viewer can see her too. So right here lies one other studying of the portray: It’s nearly as if Manet had been asking us to see the courtesan, this contemporary Venus representing the depths and peaks of European tradition, by one other set of eyes, dimly glimpsed within the background.” • I dug out my copy of Bourdieu’s Manet from the avalanche subsequent to my bedside desk; he has this to say (pp 241-2):

Just one particular person — utilizing a pseudonym, Ravenez — understood that Olympia was a parody of Titian’s Venus of Urbino. which is directly stunning and problematic: How might anybody fail to notice this?

Many commentators give attention to the place of the sitter’s hand in Olympia: Oddly sufficient, this is among the issues in regards to the portray that generated probably the most outrage. Manet was exasperated by the poses that studio fashions had been requested to strike. He stored saying: ‘Come on, do you actually act like that if you find yourself going about your life?’…. It appears honest to say that he needed a pure pose, however what was the aim of the hand in a nude? It served as a fig leaf. So he painted a hand which does certainly function a fig leaf…. [We should] bear inmind that understanding [Olympia‘s] particular formal revolution means seeing it as a parody, that’s to say, as an act of symbolic violence perpretrated towards a dominant symbolic type.

Maybe if any of our New York readers go to the present, they’ll report again.

Zeitgeist Watch

“Play Undead: The Hidden Therapeutic Energy of Self-Triggering” [OK Doomer]. “My horror binge occurred to coincide with Halloween season, so I made a ritual out of it. Just a few instances per week, I watched a horror film. I marched my method by the entire Paranormal Exercise franchise. I watched the Insidious and The Conjuring films. I labored my method as much as Sinister and The Babadook, broadly thought to be the scariest films ever made. The subsequent day, I all the time wakened feeling extra relaxed. Issues didn’t hassle me as a lot. Painful reminiscences began to resurface, however my mind might take care of them. It might course of them. It was ready for the flood of feelings. It was prepared for the catharsis that adopted. Horror films helped me grieve an abusive guardian.” • Hmm.

“For John Todd Wright, 1952-2023” [Michael Smith, Crying in the Wilderness]. • This can be a poem from Michael Smith, old-school blogger from “Cease Me Earlier than I Vote Once more,” inventor of “The Ratchet Impact.”

Class Warfare

“Confused Automakers Braced for Strike on the Fallacious Crops” [The Intercept]. “Within the weeks main as much as the strike, a cat-and-mouse recreation between the UAW and the businesses unfolded, a model of guerrilla warfare between the events. Via focused walk-offs, the union aimed to disrupt the businesses’ operations with the fewest potential employees, which might permit the union’s strike fund to last more into the battle — primarily forcing the businesses to pay employees even through the strike interval. The businesses, in the meantime, sought to anticipate exactly which crops can be struck and reorganize manufacturing and distribution to reduce losses. The Huge Three guessed badly.” The article doesn’t say this, but it surely seems to be just like the UAW obtained a narrative planted within the press that suckered the Huge Three into considering the unsuitable crops had been targets. Effectively performed!

“How UAW Tossed Its Previous Playbook and Pursued a Shock-Assault Strike Technique” [Wall Street Journal]. “The strike—which targets three meeting crops in three totally different states—was the primary time the 88-year-old union had staged simultaneous walkouts in any respect three automakers. Fain has threatened walkouts at extra crops might come, and with little discover, the longer negotiations drag on…. For Fain, there are additionally dangers. The novel tactic creates extra complexity and confusion for the UAW’s members, and would require extra self-discipline amongst employees so as to succeed, some employees and labor consultants say. In contrast to a standard all-in walkout, Fain’s technique is having an uneven impact on members inside a corporation whose motto is solidarity….. The president’s core group of advisers included a cohort of skilled UAW members who had been eager to work with the brand new administration, together with folks in analysis and organizing who had been educated in regards to the union’s historical past and had relationships with its locals. There have been additionally newcomers, particularly within the communications, authorized and political technique departments. Members of this workforce largely had roots within the Service Workers Worldwide Union, a giant healthcare union, in addition to Labor Notes, an internet publication that describes itself as a voice for union activists.” • I don’t know why I’ve to learn the Wall Avenue Journal ffs to get this degree of element. The place is Kim Kelly in Teen Vogue?!

“Michigan companies supply reductions to UAW employees on strike towards Huge Three” [MLive]. “Some Michigan companies are providing discounted costs to United Auto Staff as an act of solidarity within the ongoing strike towards automakers Ford Motor Co., Basic Motors and Stellantis…. UAW members can cease by Ella Mae’s Place, a soul meals restaurant in Detroit, to obtain 10% off their order, too.” • I’d swear I remembered Ella Mae’s Place, presumably from a earlier election. Can’t discover something although!

“Tesla is the following greatest union goal in the US. Sorry, Elon Musk” [Guardian]. “Although it doesn’t promote as many automobiles in America as the massive three, the overall worth of Tesla (due to a military of cult-like buyers) is greater than 5 instances the worth of the Huge Three corporations mixed. Regardless of years of effort from the UAW, Tesla is just not unionized. The corporate has been discovered responsible of unlawful union-busting ways, together with firing employees who had been attempting to arrange. Such ways are totally according to the angle of Musk himself, who has routinely made anti-union statements and publicly threatened to remove workers’ inventory choices in the event that they unionized…. When the massive majority of an trade is unionized, massive strikes can elevate requirements for everybody, elevating the ground for union and non-union employees alike. When solely a part of an trade is unionized, although, the non-union corporations will all the time really feel like they’ve an financial benefit – and, as a consequence, the unionized corporations will battle more durable towards union calls for, as a result of they concern being undercut by their non-union opponents…. This dynamic is enjoying out within the auto strike proper now. Tesla already pays its employees considerably lower than the massive three, and so long as Musk has no union to reply to, he’ll sit again and savor a UAW win towards his opponents that widens that hole. There’s a easy resolution to this: unionize Tesla.”

Information of the Wired

“Wine’s True Origins Are Lastly Revealed” [Scientific American]. “A big worldwide group of researchers collected and analyzed 2,503 distinctive vines from domesticated desk and wine grapes and 1,022 wild grapevines. By extracting DNA from the vines and figuring out the patterns of genetic variations amongst them, they discovered some surprises…. Genetic knowledge point out that 400,000 and 300,000 years in the past grapes grew naturally throughout the western and central Eurasian continent. Roughly 200,000 years in the past a chilly, dry, ice-age local weather slowly killed off vines within the central Mediterranean Sea area, cleaving vine habitat into two remoted areas: one to the west of the ocean (in the present day Portugal, Spain and France) and one to the east (roughly Israel, Syria, Turkey and Georgia). Round 56,000 years in the past the japanese area separated once more into smaller remoted areas: the Caucasus (Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan) and western Asia (Israel, Jordon and Iraq)…. people in western Asia domesticated desk grapes round 11,000 years in the past. Different folks, within the Caucasus, domesticated wine grapes across the identical time— though they in all probability didn’t grasp winemaking for one more 2,000 or 3,000 years. Early farmers, the revised story goes, migrated from western Asia towards Iberia and introduced desk vines with them. Alongside the way in which the farmers crossbred the desk vines with native wild grapevines. The earliest crossbreeding in all probability occurred in what’s now Israel and Turkey, creating muscat grapes, that are excessive in sugar—good for consuming and fermenting. Step by step the desk grape was genetically reworked into totally different wine grapes within the Balkans, Italy, France and Spain.” • Neat!

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Contact info for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a examine if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me pictures of crops. Greens are superb! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! In order for you your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it at the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From MT jefe:

MT jefe writes: “Wild iris and lupines, Montana.”

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