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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Hen Tune of the Day
Eurasian Nuthatch, Fishponds Open House, London, England, United Kingdom. With chiming London bell.
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Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in actual fact a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
The Constitutional Order
“A Horrible Plan to Neutralize Trump Has Entranced the Authorized World|” [Lawrence Lessig, Slate]. “A homicide of good and outstanding legal professionals imagine they’ve discovered a authorized argument to unravel the political drawback of Donald Trump.” Pretty use of the collective noun. Extra: “irst pressed by Yale Regulation professor Bruce Ackerman and Indiana College professor Gerard Magliocca, then taken up with law-review obsessiveness by Chicago’s Will Baude and St. Thomas’ Michael Paulsen, and now endorsed by essentially the most outstanding former conservative choose, Michael Luttig, and essentially the most outstanding liberal regulation professor, Harvard’s Larry Tribe, this argument says that by its personal pressure, the 14th Modification prohibits the election of Donald Trump as president as a result of his acts of revolt disqualify him from that workplace. The argument is elegant and spectacular. However it might be flatly improper for any court docket — particularly the Supreme Court docket — to embrace it…. The paradigm case that the authors of Part 3— and the state legislators who ratified it — had been considering of was the Civil Conflict. That battle concerned an lively revolt in opposition to the federal government of the US…. Nobody thinks Jan. 6 was a repeat of Fort Sumter. Nobody, that’s, believes that Trump and his allies had been rallying to secede from the Union…. I imagine that those that charged the Capitol on Jan. 6 dedicated against the law. I imagine that their crimes needs to be prosecuted. However I additionally imagine that the overwhelming majority of them thought not that they had been overthrowing a authorities however that they had been pressuring their authorities to do the fitting factor—at the very least as they (wrongly) noticed it. If such habits qualifies as Part 3 ‘revolt,’ then each chief who would possibly resist a future coup try dangers disqualifying themselves from serving in any subsequent authorities.” • Attention-grabbing argument!
“Extra On The Trump ‘Disqualified For Rebellion’ Debate” [Above the Law]. ” Suppose Trump’s January 6 plot had succeeded. Pence had disqualified some ballots for Biden, as an alternative counted the Trump ballots, and declared that Trump had been re-elected. Suppose that tens of hundreds of Democrats then protested on the grounds of the Capitol. A few of these Democrats, together with elected officers, engaged in unlawful acts of civil disobedience to indicate their outrage. Would these Democratic elected officers have engaged in revolt, disqualifying them from holding future workplace? It will possibly’t all depend upon whose ox is gored. The regulation should imply one thing*. Politicians will squeal to serve their political ends. However clever, considerate individuals who care in regards to the regulation will notice that the disqualification query is a tough and shut one. There will probably be rather more to come back earlier than the 2024 election.” NOTE * The seventy five-cent phrase for this view — which I imagine is right — is “relative autonomy.”
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“The Sweep and Drive of Part Three” [William Baude and Michael Stokes Paulsen, University of Pennsylvania Law Review]. I extremely suggest this piece (and the following dialogue at NC, beginning right here). As a former English main and a fan of shut studying, I’m not averse to “originalism,” of which Baude and Paulsen present a magisterial instance, within the sense that understanding the regulation as a textual content should start with understanding the plain, public that means of the phrases used when the textual content was written. That’s how I learn Shakespeare, or Joyce, so why not the Structure? Simply so long as understanding doesn’t finish there! In any case, I’m working by way of it. One factor I discover is that there do appear to have been fairly a whole lot of rebellions and insurrections, not simply the Civil Conflict. To me, that is parallel to 1 lesson I drew from Mike Duncan’s Revolutions podcast (episode 1): There are fairly a whole lot of revolutions, too. Alert reader Pensions Man summarizes Baude and Paulsen as follows:
The authors undergo an exhaustive textual and originalism evaluation of Part Three, and their Federalist Society leanings don’t deter them from reaching their conclusion that officers in each State who’re charged with figuring out candidate {qualifications} ought to conclude that Donald Trump is disqualified from being on ballots due to the oath he took on Inauguration Day 2017 and subsequently violated by way of his position within the revolt that befell on January 6, 2021.
Taking “revolt” as learn (I must do extra studying), this has been extra of my persevering with protection of Part Three.
Biden Administration
“Wonderful Air Drive One Details That Solely A Few Presidents Have Been Prepared To Confess” [Livestly]. Horrid clickbait. However this caught my eye: “That is most likely one of many coolest info about Air Drive One. Air Drive One can refuel within the sky. It by no means has to the touch floor. If it needed to, it may fly eternally.” • What a premise for a science fiction novel…
2024
Time for the Countdown Clock!
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“The GOP’s massive guess on labor” [Politico]. That is the lead. “When Donald Trump heads to suburban Detroit Wednesday to deal with putting auto staff, the previous president will probably be bracketing Joe Biden’s personal go to right now to the UAW picket line and unofficially kicking off the final election in a battleground state. However he’ll additionally supply the most recent datapoint in an extended coming convergence between his personal celebration and union members.” • Besides–
“Trump to talk Wednesday at non-union Macomb Co. automotive components producer” [Michigan Advance]. “Former President Donald Trump on Wednesday is about to ship remarks at Drake Enterprises, an automotive components producer and provider in Clinton Township in Macomb County, in keeping with an announcement from Trump’s marketing campaign…. Trump’s remarks are scheduled to start at 8 p.m. Wednesday. His look coincides with the second Republican presidential debate, which Trump isn’t attending….
“Why Trump’s message works” [Byron York, Washington Examiner]. “How is Trump, almost three years out of workplace and dealing with 4 indictments, forward of the incumbent president? Right here’s one reply, after listening to Trump and speaking to individuals who got here to see him on a sizzling, sweaty late September day within the Lowcountry of South Carolina. Trump’s message is compelling as a result of it’s, in essence, the spoken-word model of the sentiments in regards to the state of the nation expressed in…the Washington Publish ballot. Different polls, too. In a shortened model of his outdated speech — Trump spoke for just a little greater than half an hour, mercifully brief within the debilitating warmth — Trump spent most of his time discussing the economic system. His message was easy: Issues had been good after I was president. They’ve gone to hell since Biden grew to become president. I’ll make them good once more should you return me to the White Home… Trump spoke at size in regards to the economic system and his proposed options. Greater than the rest, it’s the core of his message. And why does it work? As a result of it displays what the polls, together with the Washington Publish ballot, present voters are most involved about. Within the new Washington Publish ballot, simply 30% of these surveyed authorized of Biden’s dealing with of the economic system, versus 64% who disapproved. Simply 25% stated the state of the economic system is superb or good (really, simply 2% stated it’s glorious, whereas 23% stated it’s good). Seventy-four p.c stated it isn’t so good or poor.” • Cf. the dialogue a few days in the past in Water Cooler about insurance coverage hikes. We’d additionally keep in mind, although York doesn’t point out it, that underneath the CARES Act — handed underneath the Trump Administration — poverty really dropped, considerably. After all the Democrats, as soon as in workplace, set about dismantling it, together with each different pandemic safety.
“We Annotated the Trump Group’s Landmark Court docket Ruling — Listed here are the Greatest Takeaways” [The Messenger]. The deck: “The Messenger unpacks the scorching, 35-page ruling that would ring the demise knell on former President Donald Trump’s enterprise empire.” From the ruling:
I’m not an knowledgeable on the main points of this case, on the related regulation, or on New York Actual Property (a enterprise that’s pure because the pushed snow, as everyone knows). That stated, “dissolution” of the cancelled LLCs appears fairly heavy-duty. (It’s my impression that Trump’s actual property empire isn’t constructed on debt, and that he owns a great deal of property outright. So The Messenger’s deck could also be just a little harsh. Readers?
“Cassidy Hutchinson warns second Trump time period wouldn’t have ‘guardrails’” [The Hill]. “‘I believe that Donald Trump in a second time period wouldn’t have guardrails,’ Hutchinson stated throughout a taped interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper that aired Tuesday…. ‘We’ve to suppose, ‘what would a second Trump time period appear like?’ she stated. ‘Who would work for Donald Trump in a second time period? That’s the query that we needs to be asking ourselves going into this election season.’… Hutchinson has been conducting her first media rounds since testifying about what was taking place contained in the White Home after Trump misplaced the 2020 election to now-President Biden, as her guide “Sufficient” was launched Tuesday.” • I lastly discovered why I hate the “guardrails” trope. It assumes there’s nothing improper with the highway (development, path), the car (bloated, predatory), or the driving force (silly or evil). Our silly timeline wants greater than “guardrails”!
“Republicans face rising urgency to cease Trump as they enter the second presidential debate” [Associated Press]. “‘This isn’t a nomination that’s going to fall in your lap. You need to go and beat the opposite candidates and a kind of occurs to be Donald Trump,’ stated Kevin Madden, a Republican strategist and veteran of Mitt Romney’s 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns. ‘This debate, it’ll be attention-grabbing to see whether or not or not of us notice that the sand goes by way of the hourglass fairly shortly proper now.’” • I suppose it might be ultimate for Democrats if each Republican however Trump is taken out, Trump is then indicted (hopefully a number of instances) and both disqualified from workplace (let’s not rely the great of us on the Federalist Society out, right here) or dogpiled into oblivion, leaving Biden — assuming he’s nonetheless compos mentis (for some definition of compos mentis) and/or alive — to be nominated by acclamation. As they imagine he deserves to be. Anyhow, there’s all the time Michelle. Or Oprah MR SUBLIMINAL N-o-o-o-o-o-o!!!!!
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“Hunter Biden acquired $260K from Beijing throughout dad’s marketing campaign — with Joe’s handle on wire: Comer” [NY Post]. Expensive Hunter. “First son Hunter Biden acquired two wire transfers from Chinese language nationals value a complete of $260,000 months after dad Joe started his 2020 presidential marketing campaign — and with the elder Biden’s Delaware house listed because the beneficiary handle, a key Home Republican stated Tuesday….. ‘Financial institution data don’t lie however President Joe Biden does. In 2020, Joe Biden informed Individuals that his household by no means acquired cash from China,’ Comer stated in a press release.” And the Democrat response: “‘Think about them arguing that, if somebody stayed at their mother and father’ home in the course of the pandemic, listed it as their everlasting handle for work, and bought a paycheck, the mother and father by some means additionally labored for the employer,’ spokesman Ian Sams posted on social media. ‘It’s bananas. But that is what excessive Home Republicans have sunken to.’” • A wire switch is identical as a paycheck? (To be truthful, maybe to some Democrats, it might be.) And from China? Actually? In the meantime:
Finest pivot to this https://t.co/ME5lBqCohs pic.twitter.com/p5sUBgQZtC
— 🇺🇸ColonelMAGAMark🇺🇸 (@ColonelMark4) September 26, 2023
“How Home Republicans Will Attempt to Show Bribery in Biden Impeachment Inquiry (Unique)” [The Messenger]. “GOP investigators imagine they don’t have to indicate that Biden took a “direct fee,” a senior Home Republican aide with direct data of the impeachment inquiry informed The Messenger. There are different methods to show Biden engaged within the constitutionally impeachable offense Republicans are pursuing. ‘Whereas the corrupt fee is powerful proof of a bribe fee, the crime might be achieved with even looking for or agreeing to just accept something of worth for the aim of being influenced,’ the aide stated. The senior staffer, who requested for anonymity to talk freely about authorized technique, highlighted that the U.S. legal code says bribery might be achieved when a public official “straight or not directly, corruptly calls for, seeks, receives, accepts, or agrees to obtain or settle for something of worth personally or for every other individual or entity.’ Chilly, arduous money in hand isn’t a mandatory burden of proof, Republicans imagine.” • They’re right; ask Zephyr Teachout. (In my opinion, the Republicans don’t even have to indicate affect. Hunter (pricey Hunter) is swanning about utilizing the Biden household identify to money in, together with his father’s data. Joe Biden may and may have stopped Hunter from doing that (which might be a easy matter of Joe not taking Hunter’s calls when Hunter is “out to lunch” with enterprise associates). I don’t know the authorized concept to suit this underneath, however certainly that is frequent sense? The Republicans have performed this enquiry with admirable sobriety up to now (“financial institution data don’t lie,” and so they’re additionally super-boring). In the event that they get the bit between their tooth and go full Benghazi, issues will finish badly for them.
“Litman: Is it time for a federal choose to place a gag order on Donald Trump?” [Los Angeles Times]. “It’s the repeated insistence that the hassle to impose a restricted gag order comes from “the Biden administration” — the temporary comprises no fewer than 9 references to Biden and his authorities — that’s the inform. It’s sheer demagoguery for the advantage of Trump’s political base to claim that the legal prices in opposition to him are the results of a political command by the president. Any half-sophisticated observer is aware of it’s a lie. The barrier between Biden and Atty. Gen. Merrick Garland is barely bolstered by the separation between Garland and Smith, who has a broad measure of independence from the division.” • That may be a basic Madisonian assemble: “Ambition have to be made to counteract ambition. The curiosity of the person have to be related with the constitutional rights of the place” (Federalist 51). That’s, the President, the Lawyer Normal, and the Prosecutor would all test one another. Isn’t it fairly to suppose so. Nevertheless, RussiaGate and the Censorship Industrial Complicated each go to indicate that Democrats don’t roll with Madisonian niceties.
“Bidens’ canine bites Secret Service officer in eleventh identified aggressive incident” [WaPo]. • When you imagine that companion animals replicate the personalities of their homeowners, Biden isn’t a pleasant individual in any respect.
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“Youngkin ‘doesn’t anticipate’ to make endorsement in presidential main” [The Hill]. “‘I don’t anticipate to endorse anybody. I believe voters ought to select this, and I’m certain will probably be a well-participated main,’ Youngkin stated on the Financial Membership of Washington. Youngkin is a well-regarded Republican who has hinted at potential White Home ambitions in his future. Whereas he has thought-about a 2024 race, he has signaled that an announcement is feasible however unlikely.”
“The Youngkin blueprint” [The Spectator]. “It’s late August and he has simply completed up certainly one of his ‘Mother and father Matter’ listening classes, this one in Virginia Seaside. Youngkin has been touring the Commonwealth and listening to straight from mother and father to meet certainly one of his largest 2021 marketing campaign guarantees: defending the rights of fogeys from authorities overreach in issues regarding their youngsters. Mother and father teams mobilized throughout that election to nice impact. Covid-related college closures and the intrusion of divisive gender and racial politics into the classroom made mother and father a vital and energized a part of the coalition that elected Youngkin. Since then, the Republican governor has launched new statewide insurance policies that require mother and father to be notified when their youngsters request social gender transitions in class, when their youngsters are uncovered to sexually express materials and, inside twenty-four hours, when their youngsters are subjected to bullying. College students are additionally required to make use of amenities and be part of sports activities groups in step with their organic intercourse. He has devoted $30 million in state funds to deal with pandemic studying loss.” • Placing Youngkin on a collision course with Pritzker, who’s completely not working both.
Republican Funhouse
“Gaetz: ‘We are going to see’ if Democrats ‘bail out our failed Speaker’” [The Hill]. “Below present Home guidelines, it solely takes one member to deliver up a movement to vacate the Speakership…. Requested about Gaetz’s feedback, McCarthy informed reporters Tuesday, ‘Look, folks have gotten to recover from private variations. I’m centered on America.’ ‘He by no means voted for me to start out out with. I don’t assume he’s altering his place,’ the Speaker continued. When requested if Gaetz’s feedback bothered him, McCarthy responded, ‘Does it appear like it bothers me? No, it doesn’t.’” • What enjoyable!
“Hillary Clinton’s portrait unveiled at State Division” [The Hill]. • The gilded body will present a pleasant coloration distinction to the pink of the dripping blood.
Democrats en Déshabillé
Affected person readers, evidently individuals are really studying the back-dated submit! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are numerous updates. So I should try this. –lambert
I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Occasion (“the Democrat Occasion is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated submit, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “stay” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Occasion is, in actual fact, a tough drawback. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:
The Democrat Occasion is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). It follows that the Democrat Occasion is as “unreformable” because the PMC is unreformable; if the Democrat Occasion didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. If the Democrat Occasion fails to manipulate, that’s as a result of the PMC lacks the potential to manipulate. (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working components of the Occasion reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Occasion (ka-ching, however not totally) these components comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.
Observe, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.
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“Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 26, 2023” [Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball]. “Menendez’s intransigence prompted a daring transfer from Rep. Andy Kim (D, NJ-3): On Saturday, the three-term member from South Jersey introduced that he’d run for Senate. Although different Democratic challengers could emerge, Kim’s early transfer could assist construct statewide identify recognition. Kim can even credibly declare to have been forward of the curve all through the current Menendez saga — he was the primary main New Jersey Democrat to name for the senator’s resignation. We don’t know precisely what sort of, or if any, behind-the-scenes politicking went on earlier than Kim’s announcement. Nonetheless, it stands to cause that Kim — a non-machine politician in a state nonetheless influenced to a point by machine politics — would have needed to have some geese lined up earlier than mounting a problem to his senior senator. One of many notable voices calling for Menendez’s resignation was 1st District Rep. Donald Norcross. Norcross represents the Camden space and has a brother, George, who is understood for controlling a South Jersey political community (though the latter not too long ago stated he takes a step again from politics because the energy of his machine has waned). For Kim, South Jersey could make for a pleasant statewide launching pad, whereas the Norcross machine may strive its hand a choosing Kim’s successor within the Home. In North Jersey, although, Menendez has constructed a sturdy machine of his personal, with a base in Hudson County (Jersey Metropolis). Menendez’s pull was evidenced in final yr’s NJ-8 main, when no big-name Democrats ran in opposition to his son for an open seat. Though Menendez seems to have misplaced help from native Democratic events in a number of key counties, he may nonetheless theoretically win a main if his help in Hudson County holds, particularly if extra candidates enter the race. The celebration line system, certainly one of New Jersey’s electoral quirks that has lengthy been disliked by good authorities advocates, is the principle cause why county-level events maintain outsized sway within the state.” • WSWS classifies Kim as a CIA Democrat: “Civilian battle planner and adviser to US navy commanders in Afghanistan, Iraq director for Nationwide Safety Council underneath President Obama.”
“The Democratic Occasion Has an Outdated Drawback and Gained’t Admit It” [Brian Beutler, New York Times]. Masterful Beutler Substack rollout. “In our fixation on Mr. Biden’s age, we frequently gloss over the position the Democratic Occasion has performed in selling and lionizing its older leaders, then muddling by way of when sickness or demise undermines their potential to manipulate. The celebration’s leaders appear to imagine implicitly within the inalienable proper of their ageing icons to stay in positions of excessive energy unquestioned, lengthy after it turns into affordable to ask whether or not they’re risking insupportable hurt. The celebration has come to function extra like a machine, during which prolonged, loyal service have to be rewarded with deference.” • Now do Covid mind injury.
“Randomly Chosen Panel Ought to Information Airport’s Future, Officers Say” [Santa Monica Lookout]. “The way forward for Santa Monica Airport needs to be hammered out — not by the same old neighborhood activists and civic volunteers — however by randomly chosen ‘on a regular basis folks,’ Metropolis officers informed the Metropolis Council Monday. The data merchandise from high Public Works officers proposes utilizing a democratic lottery to ‘have interaction new residents by way of a randomized choice course of,’ as an alternative of counting on ‘the identical self-selected people.’ After assembly in individual for six weekends over the course of some 9 months beginning subsequent fall, the panel would make suggestions to the Council for the 227-acre website that underneath a 2017 settlement with the FAA would stop to function as an airport on the finish of 2028. The panel will probably be charged with what Metropolis officers have stated ‘is prone to be essentially the most transformative city planning occasion of the century for the Metropolis’ (‘Airport Plan Takes Off,’ January 25, 2023). The lottery system — which isn’t frequent in North America — ‘would end in a panel that calls for broad demographic illustration, and minimizes the affect of particular pursuits,’ stated the report from Public Works Director Rick Valte.” • Sortition for the win! Do we’ve any California readers who’re monitoring this?
#COVID19
“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the handle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater studies); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep protected on the market!
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Movie star Watch
“Cori Bush checks optimistic for COVID, working remotely” [The Hill]. “I’ve examined optimistic for COVID-19 & I’m experiencing signs.”
“Minnesota senator checks optimistic for COVID-19” [The Hill]. Tina Smith. “I examined optimistic for COVID this morning after creating gentle signs Sunday evening.”
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Case Information
NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater information, September 25:
Lambert right here: “Information final up to date September 18, 2023 from samples collected in the course of the week of September 11, 2023. This Thursday’s replace is delayed. Visualizations are subsequent anticipated to be up to date on September 25, 2023. Most up-to-date information are topic to alter.” So even wastewater information is popping to rubbish? (I checked CDC information, and it was up to date on September 18, too? Funding points? All people utilizing the identical lab behind the scenes, and there was a debacle of some sort?)=
Lambert right here: Dropping in every single place however the Northeast.
Regional information:
Apparently, the upswing begins earlier than July 4, which neither accelerates nor retards it.
Variants
NOT UPDATED From CDC, September 16:
Lambert right here: High of the leaderboard: EG.5 (“Eris“). Nonetheless BA.2.86 right here, not even within the observe, however see under at Positivity.
From CDC, September 2:
Lambert right here: Undecided what to make of this. I’m used to seeing a brand new variant take down the beforehand dominant variant. Right here it seems like we’ve a “tag workforce,” all working collectively to chop XBB.1.5 right down to dimension. I certain hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to amenities reduce by directors of unwell intent).
CDC: “As of Could 11, genomic surveillance information will probably be reported biweekly, primarily based on the supply of optimistic take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Appears like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.
Covid Emergency Room Visits
From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, September 23:
Drop coinciding with wastewater drop.
NOTE “Charts and information offered by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not the whole pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “similar to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for bothMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these folks a lot. Discover additionally that this chart exhibits, at the very least for its time interval, that Covid isn’t seasonal, although CDC is attempting to get us to imagine that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the present institutional equipment for injections.
Hospitalization
Bellwether New York Metropolis, information as of September 27:
Flattened peak continues. I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading.
NOT UPDATED Right here’s a unique CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, at the very least. September 16:
Lambert right here: No less than we will see that positivity and hospitalization correlate.
Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and information offered by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?
Positivity
NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, September 25:
-4.7%. One other massive drop. (It will be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and large peer strain, went and bought examined anyhow.)
NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, September 23:
Lambert right here: I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is sweet*, and we’re starved for information, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is attempting to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.
NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s information, September 4:
Again up once more And listed below are the variants:
No BA.2.86 for 3 of the long-delayed assortment weeks. We all know BA.2.86 is within the nation, so apparently it escaped CDC’s web.
Deaths
NOT UPDATED Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, September 20:
Lambert right here: The WHO information is nugatory, so I changed it with the Iowa Covid Information Tracker. Their methodology: “These information have been sourced, by way of the API from the CDC: https://information.cdc.gov/NCHS/Circumstances-Contributing-to-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Stat/hk9y-quqm. This visualization updates on Wednesday evenings. Information are provisional and are adjusted weekly by the CDC.” I can’t appear to get a pop-up that exhibits a complete of the three causes (high proper). Readers?
Complete: 1,176,310 – 1,176,159 = 151 (151 * 365 = 55,115 deaths per yr, right now’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit larger than the minimizers would love, although they’ll discuss themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may must resolve that is what the powers-that-be think about “mission achieved” for this explicit tranche of demise and illness).
Extra Deaths
NOT UPDATED The Economist, September 24:
Lambert right here: That is now being up to date day by day once more. Odd. Based mostly on a machine-learning mannequin.
Stats Watch
Manufacturing: “United States Sturdy Items Orders” [Trading Economics]. “New orders for manufactured sturdy items within the US unexpectedly rose 0.2% month-over-month in August 2023, rebounding from an upwardly revised 5.6% droop in July, and beating market forecasts of a 0.5% fall. ”
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Tech: “The invisible drawback” [Scott Jenson]. “There are probably many causes, however I might argue that there are just a few deep foundational UX issues with tablets that hinders productively. Textual content enhancing is one. One other is file dealing with, one thing I’ve earlier written about should you’re . Nevertheless, earlier than anybody accuses me of being a nostalgic idiot, I wish to be clear that I’m not anti-mobile. My purpose is to not return again to the desktop, however to maneuver cell ahead. How can we really repair our telephones and tablets to be as productive and quick as we’re on desktop programs?” • Good query, and possibly Jenson has the reply, however I doubt it.
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Right this moment’s Worry & Greed Index: 24 Excessive Worry (earlier shut: 26 Worry) [CNN]. One week in the past: 48 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Sep 26 at 1:47:27 PM ET. I might anticipate Mr. Market to be having a tragic. However whereas MarketWatch has a whole lot of actually odd headlines, there aren’t any photographs of bankers leaping out of home windows. Anticipating the federal government shutdown?
Zeitgeist Watch
Dad:
A person walks as much as a police officer. Officer, I discovered a penguin, what ought to I do with it? the person asks.
The officer replies: Take him to the zoo.
The following day, the officer walks down the road and meets the person with the penguin. Didn’t I let you know to take him to the zoo? he asks the person.
The person replies: That’s what I did and right now we’re going to the flicks.
Class Warfare
“A 3rd of Individuals imagine the economic system is a zero-sum sport” [MarketWatch]. • Appears low.
Information of the Wired
“Tempest for Eliza” [Tempest for Eliza]. “Tempest for Eliza is a Program that makes use of your pc monitor to ship out AM radio indicators. You’ll be able to then hear pc generated music in your radio.” • May need broader software than music?
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Contact data for vegetation: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a test in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photographs of vegetation. Greens are effective! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you need your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From Carla:
Carla writes: “Within the Hoh Rainforest, Olympic Nationwide Park, July 2023.” Wow! A forest, not a plantation. Jogs my memory of another photographer…
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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the annual NC fundraiser. So should you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible type. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get fearful. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:
Right here is the display screen that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
When you hate PayPal, you possibly can electronic mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I will provide you with instructions on methods to ship a test. Thanks!
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