[Analysis] Macron on Western boots in Ukraine: What he really meant

“We are going to do all the things in order that Russia can not win this warfare,” Macron mentioned.

By Tuesday night, his remarks had seen the Kremlin warn of a world warfare and Germany, the UK, the US, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Italy, and the Czech Republic pour chilly water on Macron’s declaration.

“There will likely be no floor troops, no troopers on Ukrainian soil despatched there by European nations or Nato states,” mentioned German chancellor Olaf Scholz on Tuesday, for one. “Boots on the bottom isn’t an possibility for … Germany,” German defence minister Boris Pistorius mentioned.

Lithuania was an outlier in welcoming Macron’s assertion, however most reactions indicated he had misjudged the room.

Macron had proven France and Germany “couldn’t be additional aside” on Russia, mentioned Jana Puglierin, head of the Berlin workplace of the European Council on International Relations (ECFR) think-tank.

“That is no option to promote European unity,” she mentioned.

French far-right and far-left politicians additionally jumped on the alternative to whip up public concern, saying Macron had risked “the lives of our kids” and was responsible of “insanity … belligerent verbal escalation”.

And Edward Lucas, a British author on European affairs, mentioned: “Macron has a file of unpredictability. He likes pondering out loud”.

“This is able to be a captivating eccentricity if he was a college professor, however it’s unsettling if he is commander-in-chief of one of many world’s nuclear-armed powers,” Lucas mentioned.

“I am undecided how critically to take him,” Lucas added.

However regardless of the blowback, French prime minister Gabriel Attal repeated Macron’s line on Tuesday morning.

French liberal MEP and former Macron-cabinet minister Nathalie Loiseau additionally defended his feedback, saying he meant solely that Western navy specialists would grow to be extra energetic in Ukraine, not that overseas troopers would go to combat en masse within the trench-and-artillery battlefields within the nation’s southeast.

“The thought is not to go to the frontline,” she advised EUobserver on Tuesday.

“There’s a scenario which is evolving: The extent of the Russian risk is greater and we [Western states] should adapt. If we need to enhance our assist in numerous areas (de-mining, coaching, advising), we should not exclude the presence of navy on the bottom,” she mentioned.

Particular forces

For Lucas, that simply meant extra of the identical, as a result of Western particular forces had been already in Ukraine.

“It is a secretive world, for comprehensible causes, however I’ve heard believable rumours we had the SAS [Special Air Service] in Kyiv on the time of Russia’s full-scale invasion [in February 2022] defending [Ukrainian president Volodomyr] Zelensky,” Lucas mentioned.

“The SBS [Special Boat Service] was additionally concerned within the Ukrainian operation to cross the Dniepr River [in summer 2023],” Lucas mentioned, referring to 2 British special-forces models.

“You might simply think about British, American, Polish, and Baltic particular forces already working in Ukraine and even in Russia-occupied components of Ukraine,” he added, referring to duties reminiscent of long-range reconnaissance, reasonably than “killing Russians”.

Jamie Shea, a former senior Nato official, additionally mentioned: “Doubtless, there have been Western particular forces in Ukraine for the reason that starting of the warfare and these can present coaching for Ukrainian particular forces and assist to plan sabotage and commando operations”.

“These are the form of assist providers that Macron has in thoughts,” added Shea, who now teaches warfare research at Exeter College within the UK.

Extra of the identical nonetheless entailed greater danger of Western casualties, warned Matthew Savill from the Royal United Companies Institute think-tank in London.

“The Russians already consider Western forces are closely concerned in Ukraine, so this could most likely be seen as much less of an escalation than as ‘affirmation’ of their present suspicions. Nevertheless, they’d additionally see them as viable targets, and any nation contributing such forces must be ready to take casualties,” Savill mentioned.

Extra of the identical additionally meant extra Western arms for Ukraine, with Macron saying on Monday the EU can buy 155mm artillery shells for Ukraine additionally from non-European suppliers, reminiscent of Japan or South Korea, if want be.

However even when Macron’s “nothing ought to be excluded” was lower than a declaration of warfare in opposition to Russia, he had nonetheless crossed the rubicon in political phrases, Lucas mentioned.

Courageous new phrases

“That is the primary time a Western chief has ever publicly floated the thought of placing Western boots on the bottom in Ukraine,” the British author mentioned.

Macron had beforehand been some of the Putin-friendly Western large fish, with visits to Moscow within the run-up to the Ukraine invasion in 2022 and common Putin-Macron telephone calls even afterwards.

However the French chief was now “opening a [new] dialog” on Ukraine, mentioned Camille Grand, from the ECFR think-tank’s Paris workplace.

The French chief needed to “ship a sign to Russia and Ukraine on Western resolve,” an EU diplomat in Brussels additionally mentioned.

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“Possibly I underestimated him,” the diplomat mentioned.

And even when Macron has been dovish on Putin previously, French diplomats have been extra clear-eyed.

“The irreversibility of Russian strategic selections make it essential to anticipate a [future] confrontation with Moscow,” the French Secretariat-Basic for Nationwide Defence and Safety, an offshoot of the French overseas ministry, mentioned in a Strategic Evaluate in November 2022.

Nicolas Tenzer, an influential French author on overseas coverage, has additionally pushed for bolder Ukraine intervention in Paris.

“I have been advocating since a very long time publicly and privately that the EU or Nato ought to ship troops to safe Ukrainian liberated territories,” Tenzer advised EUobserver on Tuesday.

“I made no distinction between CEE [Central and Eastern European] nations and others,” he added, when it comes to whether or not French or Polish troops ought to do the job.

However for Lucas and different specialists, larger provides of Western weapons can be simpler than additional particular forces or bolder rhetoric from the Élysée.

It is the shells, silly

“Artillery shells is the overwhelming query”, Lucas mentioned.

“Ukraine additionally wants extra Himars, extra Storm Shadows, and we’d like Taurus,” he added, referring to long-range Western missiles able to putting targets in Russia.

“One of the simplest ways to place Putin on the again foot is to present Ukraine limitless provides of Western arms”, additionally mentioned Shea, the ex-Nato official.

And Robert Baer, a former US intelligence officer who till just lately suggested Kyiv on Western arms procurement, agreed.

Macron’s remark confirmed “France has no confidence Ukraine can maintain on for much longer, and like many, it believes Putin will hold going. Who’s subsequent? The Baltics? Moldova?”, Baer advised EUobserver on Tuesday.

However the French sabre-rattling was “empty … Putin is aware of it is a bluff,” Baer added.

“Nato would not have the weapons or troopers to combat a warfare with Russia, not if Putin continues à la Stalin in WWII. He is intent on restoring the Russian empire and destroying Western civilisation. He is in it for the lengthy sport,” Baer mentioned.

“The query it is advisable take into consideration is — what number of 155mm [artillery] shells does Nato have in its shares?”, Baer mentioned.

“Nato’s tanks have confirmed a bust in Ukraine, as have the [US air-defence missiles] Patriots,” he mentioned, debunking a fable of Western technological superiority.

Shea, the ex-Nato official, additionally mentioned: “Russia is now on a everlasting warfare footing. It has transformed massive components of its business to warfare manufacturing. It’s importing massive portions of Iranian and North Korean weapons. It’s mobilising a whole bunch of 1000’s of its younger males”.

“Putin is utilizing propaganda and political coercion to situation Russian society to just accept warfare as inevitable and mandatory. Even Russian faculty youngsters now endure navy coaching. You can’t dwell subsequent door to this type of nation and never lose sleep at evening,” he mentioned.

However pessimism apart, for Lucas it was nonetheless attainable to finish Putin’s aggression in Ukraine, if the West gave efficient assist.

“A Ukrainian victory begins with hitting Russian provide traces to Crimea to the purpose {that a} Russian presence in Crimea turns into unsustainable. We’re a brief method off from reducing the highway and rail bridge to Crimea after which Crimea modifications from changing into a Russian risk to changing into Ukraine’s hostage”, Lucas mentioned.