Geert Wilders is the EU’s worst nightmare

THE HAGUE — One line in Geert Wilders’ inflammatory pitch to Dutch voters will hang-out Brussels greater than some other: a referendum on leaving the EU. 

Seven years after the British voted for Brexit, a so-called Nexit poll was a core plank of the far-right chief’s finally profitable supply within the Netherlands. 

And whereas Wilders softened his anti-Islam rhetoric in latest weeks, there aren’t any indicators he needs to water down his Euroskepticism after his shock election victory. 

Even when Dutch voters should not persuaded to observe the Brits out of the EU — polling suggests it’s unlikely — there’s each indication {that a} Wilders-led authorities in The Hague will nonetheless be a nightmare for Brussels.

A seat for Wilders across the EU summit desk would remodel the dynamic, alongside different far-right and nationalist leaders already in publish. Out of the blue, insurance policies starting from local weather motion, to EU reform and weapons for Ukraine shall be up for debate, and even reversal.

Because the exit polls had been introduced, potential center-right companions haven’t dominated out forming a coalition with Wilders, who emerged because the clear winner. That’s even if for the previous 10 years, he’s been saved out by centrists. 

For his half, the 60-year-old veteran seems to be lifeless severe about taking energy himself this time. 

Ever since Mark Rutte’s substitute as VVD chief, Dilan Yeşilgöz, indicated early within the marketing campaign that she may probably enter coalition talks with Wilders, the far-right chief has labored onerous to look extra cheap. He diluted a few of his most strident positions, significantly on Islam — reminiscent of banning mosques — saying there are greater priorities to repair. 

On Wednesday night time, with the outcomes coming in, Wilders was extra specific: “I perceive very nicely that events don’t wish to be in a authorities with a celebration that wishes unconstitutional measures,” he mentioned. “We aren’t going to speak about mosques, Qurans and Islamic faculties.”

Even when Wilders is keen to drop his demand for an EU referendum in trade for energy, his victory will nonetheless ship a shudder by means of the EU establishments. 

And if centrist events membership collectively to maintain Wilders out — once more — there could also be a worth to pay with indignant Dutch voters in a while. 

Brexit cheerleader Nigel Farage confirmed within the U.Ok. that you just don’t should be in energy to be powerfully influential.

Winds of change

Migration was a dominant concern within the Dutch election. For EU politicians, it stays a urgent concern. As migrant numbers proceed to rise, so too has help for far-right events in lots of nations in Europe. In Italy final yr, Giorgia Meloni gained energy for her Brothers of Italy. In France, Marine Le Pen’s Nationwide Rally stays a potent drive, in second place within the polls. In Germany, the Various for Germany has additionally surged to second place in latest months. 

In his victory speech, Wilders vowed to deal with what he known as the “asylum tsunami” hitting the Netherlands. 

“The principle causes voters have supported Wilders in these elections is his anti-immigration agenda, adopted by his stances on the price of dwelling disaster and his well being care place,” mentioned Sarah de Lange, politics professor on the College of Amsterdam. Mainstream events “legitimized Wilders” by making immigration a key concern, she mentioned. “Voters might need thought that if that’s the concern at stake, why not vote for the unique fairly than the copy?”

For the left, the intense spot within the Netherlands was a robust displaying for a well-organized alliance between Labor and the Greens. Frans Timmermans, the previous European Fee vp, galvanized help behind him. However even that joint ticket couldn’t get near beating Wilders’ tally. 

Subsequent June, the 27 nations of the EU maintain an election for the European Parliament. 

On the identical day voters select their MEPs, Belgium is holding a normal election. Far-right Flemish independence chief Tom Van Grieken, who can be eyeing up a significant breakthrough, supplied his congratulations to Wilders: “Events like ours are on their approach in the entire of Europe,” he mentioned. 

Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was celebrating, too: “The winds of change are right here!”

Pieter Haeck reported from Amsterdam and Tim Ross reported from London.