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BRUSSELS — It is one factor to be dealt a weak hand. It is one other to play it badly.
However that is precisely what the European Fee has performed within the disaster brought on by a glut of Ukrainian grain that has put Kyiv at odds with its European allies and, specifically, left Brussels on the mercy of Polish electoral politics.
The EU’s japanese capitals had warned that they might impose their very own import bans if EU-wide restrictions expired, as deliberate, on September 15. Nonetheless, the Fee allow them to lapse. Ukraine gave discover that it will sue on the World Commerce Group if that occurred, and has duly performed so.
Now, as a result of commerce coverage lies in its remit, the Fee finds itself representing Poland, Hungary and Slovakia in a looming combat on the international commerce physique — though it disagrees with their stance.
“This can be a horrible end result for Ukraine and the European Union as a complete,” mentioned commerce knowledgeable David Kleimann, a visiting fellow on the Brussels-based Bruegel suppose tank.
“It’s incomprehensible how the Fee President allowed for the grain imports by way of the EU solidarity lane to develop right into a bilateral Polish-Ukrainian confrontation.”
Not solely do the import restrictions deal an financial blow to Ukraine — farm produce earned two-fifths of its export revenues earlier than Russia’s full-scale invasion final 12 months — however in addition they symbolize a violation of the principles of the EU single market.
EU commerce chief Valdis Dombrovskis may, for instance, have tried to name the unruly easterners to order by opening an infringement process. Why hasn’t he?
It is already too late, mentioned one EU official. The time to behave would have been within the spring, when Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Romania imposed unilateral import bans. As an alternative, the Fee caved in and launched the bloc-wide restrictions that expired this month.
“It’s the identical as with children: you give them a finger they usually’ll take a complete hand,” mentioned the official, who was granted anonymity to talk candidly. “It was a mistake to not intervene within the spring.”
Giving in to blackmail
In April, a gaggle of frontline international locations led by Poland imposed bans on Ukrainian grain following protests by native farmers unable to promote their crops. Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports had precipitated a provide glut, redirecting low-cost Ukrainian grain into continental markets.
The import crackdown sparked outrage amongst different EU international locations, which mentioned this undermined the bloc’s single market and broke solidarity with Ukraine, successfully reversing the EU’s suspension of import duties on Ukrainian items following the Russian invasion.
To keep away from a combat, the European Fee selected to retroactively ratify the curbs by introducing emergency safeguard measures for wheat, maize, rapeseed and sunflower seeds.
That put the EU govt in a tough spot, because it needed to determine by mid-September whether or not or to not prolong the restrictions — simply over per week earlier than Saturday’s election in Slovakia and one month earlier than Poland goes to the polls.
“That is quicksand that the Fee created by granting the exception the primary time round,” mentioned one EU diplomat. “By giving in to the blackmail then, it’s extremely tough to get out in a chic approach now.”
A majority of EU international locations had argued towards extending the import ban, which is broadly seen as a purely political transfer to appease the Polish conservative authorities, led by the Legislation and Justice (PiS) get together, forward of the election.
Solely on the final minute did the Fee determine to finish the restrictions, claiming there have been now not market distortions within the 5 international locations bordering Ukraine. On the similar time, Ukraine agreed to introduce measures to manage exports to keep away from a brand new grain surge.
Hungary, Poland and Slovakia rapidly introduced their very own unilateral import bans, after which Ukraine sued the three international locations on the World Commerce Group. It now falls to the Fee to symbolize these three international locations within the dispute, because the EU is accountable for commerce coverage.
“That is what a scarcity of political management appears to be like like,” mentioned Kleimann. “This impression is bolstered by the truth that the Fee has to this point signaled no intention in any way to sue Poland and Hungary for his or her clear violation of EU regulation.”
Election dynamics
So how can the EU get out of this mess of its personal making?
The extra optimistic EU and Ukrainian officers argue that, from right here on, tensions can solely ease — though bilateral talks on Wednesday between the Polish and Ukrainian agriculture ministers introduced no fast progress.
On Thursday, the European Fee will convey collectively the antagonists to hunt progress on controlling Ukrainian exports. The concept is to create an export licensing system, which gives extra flexibility.
Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski, who’s Polish, has already lashed out towards that proposal, saying it will be “corrupting.”
Though commerce is exterior his remit, Wojciechowski, a member of the Polish ruling get together, has plunged headlong into the grain combat, saying he wouldn’t “lay down arms” in his push for the Fee to reinstate the restrictions. In asserting its ban, the Polish authorities thanked Wojciechowski for “his cooperation.”
Both approach, not a lot is prone to change earlier than the Polish election, officers admit, as there may be an excessive amount of political noise.
The hope is that when the Polish ballots shut, the political posturing can cease. Ukraine will introduce its measures, the three EU international locations may also elevate their bans and the WTO dispute might be stalled, and even higher, resolved diplomatically.
However that hope could also be naive, mentioned Piotr Buras, senior coverage fellow on the European Council on International Relations.
He argues that Poland’s rising assertiveness in its relation with Ukraine is not going to disappear after the election.
“In Poland, ‘after the election’ can be ‘earlier than the election’,” mentioned Buras. “The election marketing campaign will proceed, because the formation of presidency can be tough and a snap election in spring 2024 can’t be dominated out.”
If the de-escalation European officers are hoping for seems to be a mirage, it will put the European Fee in a bind. Different EU international locations are rising nervous over the precedent for the one market’s boundaries being set by the unilateral bans.
For now, Fee officers dismiss calls to start an infringement process as they hope to discover a political answer. However the longer the row drags on, the extra such authorized motion will change into unavoidable, an EU official mentioned, because the three international locations aren’t simply flouting EU regulation; they’re overtly bragging about it.
Polish Agriculture Minister Robert Telus, for instance, struck a defiant tone on the final assembly of EU farm ministers in Brussels, telling reporters he wasn’t fearful about attainable retaliation from the Fee.
“On April 15 we did way more, we blocked every thing. And what occurred?” he mentioned. “Nothing.”
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