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This ought to be thought-about a companion piece of Kos’ Ukraine Replace on a possible breach of the Surovikin Line west of the village of Verbove.
The Surovikin Line is the second of 4 main protection strains constructed by Russia to guard the T0408 Freeway that connects Ukrainian-held territory round Orikhiv to the rail/street hub that’s Tokmak.
Verbove sits behind the Surovikin Line, the second and arguably most formidable defensive line constructed by the Russian military. The second and fourth protection strains have the total vary of Russian defensive constructions, together with anti-tank ditches, mines, pre-fabricated pillboxes, and miles upon miles of trenches.
The primary and third strains (and lesser and smaller unnumbered strains) might have trenches and minefields, however not the total panoply of Russian defensive constructions; there’s a honest quantity of subjectivity as to what could be thought-about “a line of protection.” Totally different observers think about Russia to have between two and 7 strains of protection.
Nevertheless you depend them, the defensive line Ukraine is at present dealing with is extensively thought-about to be the foremost protection line for 2 causes.
First, it’s certainly one of two Russian protection strains that’s absolutely and maximally constructed out with dragons enamel, anti-armor ditches, bunkers, and trenches. Emil Kastehlemi and the Black Chook Group have supplied intensive evaluation of the formidable nature of this protection line. (For many who can not learn these tweets, the unrolled thread may be learn on thread reader right here.)
The Black Chook Group recognized a piece of the Surovikin Line that appears to have been uncared for and left incomplete. It’s situated from the realm round what I’ve known as “Hill 166” east of Novoprokopivka, then heading east to the sting of Verbove.
This space is vital. The ridge between Novoprokopivka and Verbove isn’t simply militarily essential excessive floor—it’s the final excessive floor between Ukrainian forces and Tokmak. It is going to be all downhill from there.
Having captured Robotyne, Ukraine had two choices for a method ahead: Proceed to drive down the T0408 freeway to Tokmak, or attempt to flank the Russian place at Novoprokopika.
Two issues appeared to make a frontal assault down the freeway unattractive.
First, there was an intervening smaller protection line between Robotyne and Novoprokopivka that made Russia’s defenses down the freeway primarily two layers deep as an alternative of only one. Flanking Novoprokopivka from the east is simpler stated than completed because the Russians management the dominant heights to the south, and a Ukrainian flanking power can be subjected to enfilade fireplace by itself flanks.
Kastehelmi and the Black Chook Group assessed that the Russian defenses south of Robotyne had been aligned to defend each in opposition to assaults from the north and from the east. These fortifications had been described as “formidable,” that includes coated firing positions, bunkers, car shelters, and extra.
Second, the Russian forces selected to pay attention twice as many of their accessible forces round Novoprokopika, Ilchekove, and Solodka Balka as had been distributed throughout Hill 166 and Verbove. The 76th Guards Air Assault Division was recognized to have been transferred from the Kreminna space to Tokmak, and there’s hypothesis the coming items had been supposed to bolster Russia’s defenses at Hill 166 and Verbove on Russia’s proper flank. Three extra regiments of Russia’s 76th GAAD would have largely closed the distinction in power allocation between their left and proper wings on the Surovikin Line.
Ukraine responded by positioning its two extra drained brigades that had been main the assault in the direction of Robotyne to the west: the forty seventh Mechanized and sixty fifth Mechanized Brigades. The forty seventh Mechanized is certainly one of Ukraine’s strongest brigades, geared up with Bradley Combating Automobiles and supported by Leopard 2 tanks of the thirty third Mechanized Brigade. The sixty fifth Mechanized Brigade fought alongside the forty seventh since mid-June and had persistently been a part of Ukraine’s efforts to push previous the Russian minefields and intensive defenses north of Robotyne.
These two brigades had amply demonstrated their brutal effectiveness in liberating Robotyne, however after almost 11 weeks of steady and repeated assaults, it seems the Ukrainian normal workers could also be giving them a slight breather. As such, the principle Ukrainian assault unfolded to the east, led by the 82nd Air Assault and forty sixth Airmobile Brigades.
The 82nd Air Assault has been known as “ridiculously highly effective” and is usually known as the Ukrainian navy’s best unit. Geared up with British Challenger 2 Most important Battle Tanks, German Marder Infantry Combating Automobiles, and American Stryker IFVs, it is among the heaviest-equipped brigades within the Ukrainian navy. Together with NCOs and tank crews handpicked from Ukraine’s twenty fifth and eightieth Airborne Brigades, the 82nd represents the cream of the crop of Ukraine’s finest troopers.
The forty sixth Airmobile Brigade is a relatively lighter brigade, however it’s nonetheless geared up with British Wolfhound, a 17-ton closely armored Mine-Resistant Ambush-Protected 6×6 car designed for front-line tactical assist and fight. These are paired with closely upgraded T-80BV Tanks, among the many finest Soviet-era tanks in Ukrainian service. A gas-turbine powered variant of the T-80 tank, the T-80BV, is operated solely by Ukraine’s Air Assault forces and boasts unbelievable mobility, albeit at a 33% discount in gas effectivity in comparison with diesel variations of the T-80.
The 82nd and forty sixth Brigades are each contemporary, with their veteran troopers having been held out of fight for months. (The 82nd is, on paper, newly shaped and contains quite a few new NATO skilled volunteers.) They’re being dedicated to fight for the primary time in the course of the counteroffensive.
First, a geolocation of a Ukrainian items below assault by the Russian Bobr Drone Group on Aug. 25 indicated that Ukraine had superior significantly to the east of Novoprokopivka. The thrust appeared to climb up a ridge immediately in the direction of the fortified heights on Hill 166. A second geolocation, additionally by way of an assault by the Bobr Drone Group, confirmed the Ukrainian advance to this space, this time on Aug. 29. This positioned components of Ukrainian forces simply 1,000-1,500 meters from Hill 166.
Nevertheless, Ukraine started closely shelling the realm instantly east of Hill 166, northwest of Verbove.
For the previous a number of days, Ukraine has been reportedly shelling these Russian trenches west and southwest of Verbove intensely, together with with 155 mm Cluster Munition artillery shells.
Images from current days confirmed a number of Russian positions on fireplace.
NASA satellite tv for pc FIRMS knowledge (ordinarily used to trace forest fires) present intense fires and doable explosions northwest of Verbove. (Due to Barbecul for the tip!)
And it’s on this space that Ukrainian scouts had been noticed roughly 2 km behind the Surovikin Line (unrolled thread right here).
Reconnaissance drone footage noticed a small group of Ukrainian infantry geolocated to this location.
Earlier than concluding that Ukraine has efficiently breach Russian defenses northwest of Verbove, there are a number of details that must be saved in thoughts:
There’s no proof up to now that Ukrainian armored automobiles have handed the Surovikin Line.
It’s doable that this was a Ukrainian infantry infiltration workforce conducting reconnaissance.
By all indications, the Russians nonetheless management the heights north and south of Verbove.
Whereas the presence of Ukrainian infantry past the Surovikin Line might signify a breach of the road, it might additionally signify a short lived hole opening up within the Russian defenses {that a} small group of Ukrainian infantry slipped by way of to conduct deep recon of the rear Russian defensive place.
This in itself would signify a big weakening of Russian ahead positions on the Surovikin Line, and be an excellent signal that Ukrainian assaults on the road are opening up gaps of their defenses.
Within the best-case situation, Ukraine has opened up a 1 to 2 km-wide breach within the Russian defensive strains and occupied the low floor trenchworks northwest of Verbove. Ukrainian engineers are clearing a broader and safer route for Ukrainian armor and provide vehicles, and Ukrainian Challenger 2s, Strykers, and Marders are streaming by way of the hole to organize to flank Hill 166. However once more, we haven’t seen proof of that simply but.
If a breach has been achieved, it might seem the assault is being led by components of the 82nd Air Assault Brigade. The assault in the direction of Hill 166 may need been an assault supposed to “repair” the items in that location, to forestall them from shifting eastward to help a breach of defenses round Verbove.
Moreover, Ukraine would have been aiming to breach the Surovikin Line on the weakest doable level: the one a part of the defensive position that crosses a gully on this space. On many ranges, it makes plenty of sense that Ukraine would select to aim to breach the Surovikin Line at this location, on this sequence of offensive actions.
Even when the Ukrainian infantry unit seems to be an infiltration mission and never consultant of a breached protection line, regardless of the way you interpret this example, it’s laborious to contemplate this something however extremely excellent news for Ukraine’s Tokmak offensive.
Euromaidan Press’ newest report from Ukraine notes that native Ukrainian commanders of the forty seventh and 82nd Brigades declare that they’ve breached a 6 km-wide stretch of the primary line of Russian trenches, however don’t seem to have pierced the second (remaining) line of defenses. This declare shouldn’t be visually confirmed.
if Ukraine can punch by way of the defenses northwest of Verbove, the Ukrainian forces can have a golden alternative to flank the first Russian positions round Hill 166 and roll up the Surovikin Line from the east to the west.
And keep in mind, as soon as Ukraine forces Russia to retreat from the Surovikin Line and Hill 166, it’s downhill all the way in which to Tokmak.
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