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EU corridors are abuzz with intrigue on whether or not European Fee president Ursula von der Leyen will search a second time period or strive one thing new, comparable to changing into the first-ever lady to guide Nato.
In contrast to her predecessor Jean-Claude Juncker, who made clear he wasn’t staying on, her intentions stay imprecise.
Von der Leyen herself has stated she hasn’t determined but and her state-of-the-union tackle in Strasbourg on Wednesday (13 September) is not anticipated to disclose a lot both.
At finest, she would possibly give a broad trace.
The speech, lasting over one hour, is to deal with Inexperienced Deal implementation and industrial competitiveness, senior officers stated.
She’s anticipated to name on MEPs and EU nations to finalise negotiations on the long-delayed migration and asylum pact.
She’s additionally anticipated to go greater on enlargement than final 12 months, when she barely talked about it.
However for all her reticence on prime jobs, her crew has compiled a listing of her achievements forward of the annual tackle, in what may very well be seen as an up to date CV.
They highlighted her formidable local weather agenda, marking the Inexperienced Deal in 2020 as a shiny begin for the EU Fee president.
She performed a high-profile function within the Covid pandemic and in diplomacy on the Ukraine struggle.
And her crew’s underlying message was that she’s achieved so much and now was a time to evaluate and financial institution von der Leyen’s achievements.
Sensible choice?
The 64-year previous centre-right politician first joined the EU prime desk as former German chancellor Angela Merkel’s defence minister some 20 years in the past.
4 years into her Fee publish, the EU is going through turbulent occasions — the struggle, local weather disaster, spiralling inflation and poverty, and a resurgence of populism.
However von der Leyen has navigated the stormy seas in a approach that gained respect even from socialist-led nations, comparable to Spain.
She confirmed sturdy solidarity with Ukraine, the place she travelled on a number of events.
When the pandemic struck Europe, she performed a pivotal function securing vaccine contracts and in launching the EU’s €750bn post-corona restoration plan, although her dealing with of the vaccine purchases was marred by a transparency scandal on lacking SMS-es.
“In view of her document within the first time period, she could be a sensible choice once more in 2024,” stated Jim Cloos, a long-serving senior official on the EU Council who’s now retired.
She would doubtless get the help of most member states for a second time period, regardless of some uncertainties, comparable to the result of Dutch elections in November, he added.
However not everybody’s help is a given.
Hungary has brazenly questioned von der Leyen’s agenda and Italy, too, poses a query mark, on condition that prime minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy celebration voted towards her nomination within the European Parliament again in 2019.
Not once more?
Von der Leyen’s first elevation to the Fee prime publish was additionally marked by controversy.
EU leaders parachuted her in from Merkel’s defence ministry utilizing their treaty powers after the flop of the Spitzenkandidaten course of — through which the EU Parliament’s political households put ahead lead nominees for the Fee job and the household that does finest within the EU elections wins.
It created a sense that she was imposed on MEPs from above even in her personal European Folks’s Occasion (EPP), not to mention the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D).
As anticipated, EU member states earlier this 12 months did not again the Spitzenkandidat course of, amongst parliament’s different proposals on the way to revamp the subsequent elections.
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And S&D chief Spanish MEP Iratxe García advised reporters final week that it might be “unacceptable” and “ridiculous” if the 2019 scenario occurred once more.
“She [von der Leyen] has confirmed that it is potential to get the job with out operating as a lead candidate — however would MEPs let her get away with {that a} second time? Very unsure,” stated Sophia Russack, a researcher from the Centre for European Coverage Research think-tank in Brussels.
Von der Leyen’s 2019 election, Russack stated, proved how troublesome it’s to get votes from the EU Parliament if MEPs really feel bypassed.
In 2019, the German politician secured approval by a tiny margin, with 383 votes in favour (and 374 votes required).
The EPP might formally designate her as its lead candidate to therapeutic massage MEPs’ emotions, Russack famous, however it stays unsure if the group would try this.
Von der Leyen is seen as too progressive by some EPP members and her variations with German conservative Manfred Weber, the chief of her EPP group and former EPP Spitzenkandidat, have grow to be noticeable in current months.
In the meantime, if the EPP falls in need of expectations in subsequent 12 months’s elections and the socialists get a superb outcome, many would then name for a change within the fee prime publish.
First-ever
But when the EU door have been to shut, one other one would possibly open, as von der Leyen has additionally emerged as a possible candidate for the function of Nato secretary common.
With Jens Stoltenberg’s management of Nato to finish in October 2024, after the EU elections, the choice might hardly be extra well timed.
Nato is predicted to announce Stoltenberg’s successor at its Seventy fifth-anniversary summit in Washington subsequent June.
And if von der Leyen needed the Nato job she had so much going for her, in keeping with former senior Nato official Jamie Shea.
Von der Leyen might grow to be Nato’s first feminine head, as she enjoys the backing of the US administration and worldwide respect for her robust stance on Russia, China, and her dedication to the inexperienced agenda, Shea stated.
Her previous function as a defence minister offers her expertise in Nato and navy issues and Germany hasn’t held the Nato helm since 1995, he added.
Different names have additionally emerged as potential contenders.
Danish prime minister Mette Frederiksen gathered media consideration regardless of her repeated disavowals of curiosity. Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte can also be within the operating, an EU supply stated.
“However von der Leyen is definitely a reputation that greater than most ticks all the appropriate Nato containers,” Shea advised EUobserver.
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