Warsaw makes a risky political bet in attacking Ukraine

WARSAW — Poland’s ruling Regulation and Justice (PiS) occasion is within the combat of its political life forward of subsequent month’s normal election — and in its scramble for votes it is taking intention on the nation’s alliance with Ukraine.

The newest blow got here from Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who on Wednesday stated that Poland has halted shipments of its personal armaments to Ukraine.

“We’re now not transferring weapons to Ukraine, as a result of we at the moment are arming Poland with extra trendy weapons,” Morawiecki instructed Poland’s Polsat tv.

It is true that Poland has despatched most of its Soviet-era tanks, fighters and different weapons to Ukraine and would not have a lot left in its shares. Warsaw may also proceed permitting arms shipments from different allies to move by its territory.

“Poland nonetheless capabilities as a hub for worldwide assist,” stated authorities spokesperson Piotr Müller, including that the nation is fulfilling its present army provide contracts with Ukraine.

However Morawiecki’s feedback come at a time when relations between Warsaw and Kyiv are the frostiest since Russia’s invasion a yr and a half in the past, and add to the impression that the nationalist occasion is undermining its alliance with Ukraine for electoral achieve.

“Morawiecki wasn’t saying something that wasn’t apparent … however to say such a factor at such a time escalates the battle,” stated Marcin Zaborowski, a director with the Globsec assume tank.

The catalyst is grain.

Poland, Hungary and Slovakia have closed their markets to Ukrainian grain imports, in violation of the principles of the European Union’s single market, arguing they should shield their farmers from worth drops.

Ukraine has retaliated by submitting a lawsuit in opposition to them on the World Commerce Group. It has additionally threatened to dam some Polish agricultural exports to Ukraine.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy took a swipe at these nations on the United Nations this week, saying: “Alarmingly, some in Europe play out solidarity in a political theater — turning grain right into a thriller … they’re serving to set the stage for a Moscow actor.”

Polish President Andrzej Duda scrapped a gathering with Zelenskyy in New York as a consequence of a scheduling battle, and the Ukrainian ambassador to Warsaw was summoned to the overseas ministry to elucidate. Morawiecki characterised relations with Kyiv as “tough.”

Political calculation

In Poland, the core purpose for the transfer is PiS’s have to shore up its assist amongst rural voters and likewise to peel away supporters from the far-right Confederation occasion, a lot of whose backers are skeptical about serving to Ukraine.

“Ukrainians ruthlessly took benefit of the Polish authorities being a sucker, emphasised their sympathy, which in fact was not there, took the money, and now they are going to declare a commerce warfare on us,” Confederation chief Sławomir Mentzen instructed the Polish press.

Jacek Kucharczyk, head of the Institute for Public Affairs, a Warsaw-based assume tank, characterised the shift in tone by the ruling occasion as “a determined electoral ploy.”

In POLITICO’s ballot of polls, PiS has the assist of 38 p.c of voters whereas Civic Coalition, the main opposition occasion, is at 29 p.c. If that holds, Regulation and Justice will not have sufficient seats in parliament to rule by itself and so must attempt to kind a coalition; Confederation is the likeliest goal, though the occasion says it will not be part of forces with PiS.

However the developments look worrying for PiS.

The federal government has been hit with a rising visas-for-bribes scandal that now has the European Fee asking for explanations. A brand new ballot by United Surveys reveals that if the primary opposition events be part of collectively, they might be capable to cobble collectively a majority authorities after the October 15 election.

Shifting narrative

The U-turn on Ukraine might assist shore up a few of PiS’s electoral base. However it may trigger different issues.

It undermines the federal government’s primary overseas coverage win. After years of bitter conflicts with the European Union and different key allies over rule of legislation, media freedom and backsliding on democratic requirements, Poland’s sturdy assist for Ukraine modified the narrative in Brussels and in Washington.

Hundreds of thousands of unusual Poles helped Ukrainian refugees fleeing throughout the border within the instant aftermath of the Russian assault. The Polish authorities despatched tanks and jet fighters to Ukraine at a time when many different nations have been balking at sending such gear to Kyiv, fearing Russian retaliation. Warsaw additionally took enjoyment of mentioning the shortcomings of European nations like Germany and France.

Zelenskyy even known as Poland a “sister.”

In an tackle to the Polish nation made final yr in Polish, he stated: “I’ll keep in mind the way you welcomed us, the way you assist us. Poles are our allies, your nation is our sister. Your friendship ceaselessly. Our friendship ceaselessly. Our love ceaselessly. Collectively we might be victors.”

Opinion polls present there’s nonetheless sturdy assist for serving to Ukraine, with about three-quarters of Poles wanting to simply accept refugees.

“The danger is that PiS voters broadly assist the pro-Ukraine coverage, and such a speedy coverage change may very well be tough to elucidate,” stated Kucharczyk.

PiS has toyed with skepticism about Ukraine prior to now — elevating the difficulty of wartime massacres of Poles by Ukrainian nationalist guerrillas — however the overarching message was that Poland is Ukraine’s firmest buddy.

The narrative shift is being welcomed in Moscow.

In New York, Duda in contrast Ukraine to a determined, drowning particular person.

“A drowning particular person is extraordinarily harmful, he can pull you right down to the depths … merely drown the rescuer,” Duda stated.

That received a thumbs-up from the Kremlin.

“By no means earlier than did I agree with Duda as strongly as I did after this assertion. All the pieces he stated is appropriate,” stated Russian overseas ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova.

The Polish opposition can be happening the assault.

Radosław Sikorski, a former Polish overseas minister and now a member of the European Parliament for the Civic Coalition, known as Morawiecki’s feedback “criminally silly.”

“Even when we do not have far more to provide then why is he saying this in public! Does he really need [Russian President Vladimir] Putin to calculate that one or two extra pushes and Ukraine will fall?” he tweeted.

Kyiv is now attempting to downplay any rift with Warsaw.

Oleksandr Merezhko, head of Ukraine’s parliament committee on overseas relations, stated he felt Morawiecki’s weapons feedback weren’t linked to the rising commerce combat.

“Like each politician, I do know that in an election marketing campaign, rhetoric will be fairly emotional,” he stated.

Bartosz Brzeziński and Veronika Melkozerova contributed reporting.